Big Brother Canada 2 Preview!

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Big Brother in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, interviews with eliminated players, side show, and occasionally the live feeds to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Reading through the recently released cast list for Big Brother Canada's second season, I was not very optimistic. The whole time I was like "Okay, when are we going to get to the people who actually have a chance to win?" ... And I'm still wondering that. With any luck, this mysterious final Houseguest will be some sort of superfan, although that seems unlikely.

I'm really excited to do this preview though, because I think I'm going to get really mean! All I have to go off are each houseguest's written bios, which is probably part of the reason that none of them seem great. But it makes it more fun for doing a preview blog, because I get to assume that their entire being is portrayed in their answers to a few short questions, and completely pick them apart because of it!

However, I don't like being extremely negative, so I'm going to try to come up with one positive thing to say about each contestant! (Key word: try. I can't make any promises)

Plus, I'll make a winner prediction at the end! Which will be really easy, because there are so few of them that show any potential whatsoever! (I reserve the right to change this prediction after finding out who the final houseguest is, as there's a good chance I'll find that person better than all of the rest)

Okey dokey, here we go!

Adel Elseri

First things first: Get ready for a whole bunch of first names you've never heard before. There are a lot of them in this cast.

First problem with Adel is his answer when asked who he'd rather take to the final 2: Gary or Peter? He says Peter because he knows he can beat him in any challenge... Umm, he knows that there aren't any challenges in the final 2, right? That might put a wrench in his plans.

He says that what he'll miss most while in the house is the girl he wants to marry. I'm a little confused by the wording. He doesn't say fiance or girlfriend, which could just be a coincidence but kinda makes me think this is just some random girl he's creeping on.

He goes on to say that he's scared of mental challenges because he CAN'T SPELL OR READ. I really hope that's an exaggeration. Especially since his occupation is an inventor. You'd think that would require a little bit of intelligence.

He also says he's aggressive, which is great if that mean's he's going to put his all into the game, and not give up, but very bad if it means he's going to go out Willie Hantz style.

The positive: He does seem to have a good personality/sense of humour, so he may be a good social player as long as that agressiveness isn't too prominent. He'll also be a force to be reckoned with in physical challenges (although, let's face it, it's rare for a big brother challenge to get very physical).

Andrew Gordon

Giant red flag right off the bat is that Andrew has only watched one season of Big Brother before (Canada's first season). While he could still do very well, he may not have the game knowledge to really ever be in control of his fate.

And... there's actually nothing genuinely bad about the rest of his bio. It's not amazing, but it's not bad.

The positive: He's very confident, which is a plus as long as it doesn't get too out of hand. He has a good plan of how to approach the game strategy wise: Focus on being likeable at first, and worry about making big moves and power plays later.

Oh, wait. He says he's gonna miss beer. That's not good for his likeability, in my opinion. It's hard to get a gauge of his personality from his bio, but going off things like that, he may have a hard time making friends with anyone other than the other jerks. But we'll see, maybe he's not so bad.

                                                              

Anick Gervais

Anick's occupation is a... Reiki master? Umm... I'm fairly sure she just made that up. (More likely, I just don't have a lot of common knowledge, but whatever)

She would take Peter to the finals over Gary, because she could beat him athletically and mentally... maybe these people answered this question taking into consideration the weeks leading up to the final 2. In any case, Peter is the wrong answer. Although if she's as smart as she seems to think she is, she maybe could pull it off.

Okay, reading through this again, these people may not be as bad as I initially thought. A lot of positives here:

Dr.Will is her idol. That's a great choice, and suggests that she's seen her fair share of big brother.

She says she's not normal; anyone who can admit they're weird is amazing!

And she's got the right idea about strategy: it depends on the variables in the house. You can't have a solid strategy before you even know who you're playing with, so this is a good answer. She goes on to say she's going to... let destiny decide her fate, meditate and let the universe tell her what to do?

I take back what I said before. This is bad. Very bad.

Mean people get on her nerves... based on this cast she may not be very happy in the house.

On the other hand, she gets on the nerves of negative people, and this cast is super confident and positive so at least she won't be getting on their nerves.

She ends by describing herself as a butterfly ready to break out of her cocoon. How beautiful.

                                                                  

Arlie Shaban

Arlie's occupation is... big brother houseguest? Okay.

Besides that, his bio is actually pretty good. He comes off a little arrogant, but hopefully that won't show in his actual encounters. Arlie is one of the two people here who I actually think has a good shot at this.

He's a superfan, and he chose Dr. Will and Dan Gheesling as his idols. He's ready to lie and actually play the game, and he's extremely confident about his chances in the competitions (at least the ones he doesn't throw).

Really the only thing that could hold him back is if this overconfidence and arrogance shows to the other houseguests, or if he plays too hard and gets caught in his lies. Overall though, things are looking up for Arlie. Cool name, too.

                                                               

Heather Decksheimer

Heather idolizes Rachel Reilly. I've never seen Rachel play, unfortunately, but from what I've heard her game was all physical: She was great at the competitions. That tells me that Heather will be predominantly focused on the competition side of the game rather than the strategy.

She would take Gary to the final 2 because he was more fun and loyal than Peter... again, am I the only one who took this question as "you're at the final three with Gary and Peter, and you've won final HoH. Who do you take to the final 2?"? Because at that point it shouldn't matter how fun or loyal someone is.

She fears challenges with multiplying and dividing, which sounds pathetic to me but I guess would be pretty reasonable to the general public.

The positives: She claims that she will play dumb, but is actually very smart, which, if true, is great. She also says she doesn't really feel emotions, which would be a useful trait in a game where it's usually best to play with your head rather than your heart. Plus she seems to have seen at least a few seasons of big brother.

                                                                

Ika Wong

One of Ika's three words to describe herself is "extra". Have you ever heard someone say "I'm extra!" before? What does that even mean!?

SHE ACTUALLY ANSWERS THE PETER GARY QUESTION FROM A STRATEGIC POINT OF VIEW!!! That's so exciting. She even picked Gary, which is the right answer!

She has two strategies going into the house, and she'll decide which one to use once she's there. That flexibility is good, but one of her strategies sucks (to only ever talk game with one or two people), so let's hope she goes with the other one.

She finds it hard to keep her feelings to herself; If she doesn't like someone, they're going to know it. If she can't keep that in control, she could be in big trouble.

Besides that, there are a lot of good things in her bio. She idolizes Dr. Will and Rachel, and references Danielle Reyes at one point, which tells me she's watched a lot of big brother.

                                                                

Jon Pardy

He only started watching big brother halfway BBUS season 14, so he hasn't seen a ton of the show.

He says that he'd take Gary to the final 2 because both Gary and Peter would be tough to beat but Gary would be more fun to have around. This is just code for "I don't wanna put much thought into the strategic aspect of this, so I'm not going to." 

He says he'll miss his dog the most. Now, I love dogs as much as any other, but this seems a little much. You're really going to miss your dog more than your family and friends? This tells me that Jon doesn't actually have any solid relationships in life. Thus, I don't expect him to be making many friends in the house.

The positive: He seems interested in the manipulation side of the game. If he can do that effectively, he could be a player to watch.

                                                                   

Kenny Brain

First of all, his last name is Brain. That's pretty great.

He says he'd take Peter to the end over Gary because Peter's game wasn't as good, which makes zero sense, and tells me that he really doesn't know what the game's all about.

The thing he'll miss most is... his dog!? Again!? He says that this will be the longest they've ever been apart, and will hopefully be the longest they're apart for the rest of Kenny's life.  ...  ... Umm, Kenny? That's not going to happen. Hate to break it to you, but dogs actually DON'T have as long a life span as humans... I know, hard to believe... I'll just move on while you digest that little tidbit.

Tim Horton's commercials make him cry... that's just a little ridiculous.

His pet peeve is messy people. Jon Pardy described himself as "untidy". I see a conflict between the two.

The positive: He claims he's smart, his idol is Britney Haynes (BB12) which tells me he's watched more than one season of big brother, and his initial strategy of starting slow, making friends, and throwing challenges is a good one.

                                                             

Kyle Shore

One of Kyle's occupations is "picking up the girls downtown" and one of his three words to describe himself in "jacked." I already hate this guy.

This is his answer for who he'd take to the final 2, Peter or Gary: "Gary for sure! He was dead honest and played himself the whole time. Peter I'd probably eat him for breakfast. I'm always hungry though. I'm 225 lb."   ... I don't think I need to comment further on that.

He doesn't like people who lie. He's also about to start playing a game where you'll need to lie to win. *Sigh*

The positive: He at least admits that he's stupid. He says "people will mistake my stupidity for strategy" which really isn't a good thing because if people think he's playing strategically, they'll target him even more. Here's hoping they do.

                                                                  

Neda Kalantar

Neda is the second person who I think has a good shot to win it all. She's a big brother superfan; She watches BBUS, BBAU, BBUK, and BBCAN. She says Britney is her idol but admits that she wasn't a great player. She asnswers the Peter/Gary question perfectly (she chooses Gary, for strategic reasons, and then changes to Peter so Gary won't hate her. But she got the message through... her real answer was the first one. It's actually pretty great what she did: made a strategic decision, and then found a way to soften the blow for the person she was essentially "voting against")

She will be throwing competitons and making as many personal connections with others as possible, which are both good things.

Like Arlie's arrogance, Neda has one thing that could be her Achilles heel: She's blunt. Hopefully she can restrain herself from always telling others when they do something that bothers her. If so, she can definitely win the game.

                                                            

Paul Jackson

Paul is a lot older than most of the other contestants, which will be a big obstacle to overcome in his social game.

Oh my. I just discovered that there ARE "meet the contestant" videos. Oh well. Too late to factor those in now.

Anyways, Paul decides that Gary was more well-liked than Peter, and therefore he should take Peter to the final 2. He is wrong.

He's the only person so far I think who said he was more worried about the brawn challenges than the brain ones. That's refreshing. 

His strategy is to build a relationship with the audience. This is actually a great point considering how much influence Canada had on the game last year.

His idols are Chilltown... nothing else really special about his bio. Overall he'll probably do well but I see the age gap getting between him and the final 2. 

                                                             

Rachelle Diamond

Rachelle's idol is Rachel, obviously. Her reason is because she was good at the competitions, which again makes me feel like Rachelle will not be focused on the strategic side of things.

She really seems to love Peter Brown, which is nice. But her decision to pick him over Gary had nothing to do with strategy, which is not nice.

She also says she'll have a tougher time with Brawn than Brain, which makes sense. She doesn't exactly look like a physical powerhouse.

She says she'll need to tone herself down in the house. She can be really loud and confrontational. She then says that she and her friends think she would be perfect for the show, so either she's actually not loud and confrontational, or she and her friends don't understand the show. I'd bet on the latter.

The positive: She could be entertaining? Good TV? I think she won't be a big factor game-wise.

                                                               

Sabrina Abbate

Like most of the others, Sabrina makes her Peter/Gary decision based on who she likes better, not who would be easier to beat.

And once again, the thing she'll miss most are her dogs. Wow. Okay. I will admit that "dogs" is a better answer than "beer". Anyways, moving on...

She says that she's the devil when she's hungry, so don't put her on slop. The chances that she's never on slop are pretty slim. So at some point she's going to turn into the devil, which will be great for us viewers but very un-great for her game.

Finally, she says she's obsessed with the show. Awesome. She says she can see every twist coming. Impressive. She says she predicts who the winner will be after one episode, and 90% of the time she's right... which pretty much means she's not actually obsessed and she can't see the twists coming because this is all clearly exaggerated.

If by some miracle she isn't exaggerating, then that is seriously impressive.

The positive: She seems to have a really fun personality and could have a great social game.

                                                                      

Sarah Miller

Sarah wrongly thinks Peter would be easier to beat than Gary. I'm tired of that.

She refers to her husband and daughter as her "most prized possessions" which is just a little unnerving.

She's fairly confident for the challenges (as is almost everyone. With only a couple exceptions, people are either planning on throwing competitions or will without a doubt win every single one!)

She doesn't like mean people and bullies, so maybe her and Anick will bond over how much they hate all the guys in the house.

The positive: She has the good initial strategy of simply being likeable and waiting until she's in the house to flesh out a more solid strategy

And now for the moment you've all been waiting for! Who will I pick to win the game? Like you've probably guessed, it's between Arlie and Neda. Both are superfans who will know how to play the game, but both have a fatal flaw: Arlie's arrogance and Neda's bluntness. My decision is based on who I think will be able to overcome their flaw, and who will be seen as less of a target. 

Without further ado, my prediction to win Big Brother Canada 2 is...

Neda Kalantar!

Congratulations Neda. You should be honoured.

And once again, the final houseguest may take that spot depending on who he/she is.

One last prediction before I go. I see a brolliance forming in the early stages of the game, as so often happens on Big Brother. I think Kyle, Jon, Andrew, and Adel will form an alliance early on, maybe win the first couple HoHs, and then fall apart miserably.

I plan on posting one BBCAN blog per week, based on everything that has happened up to the latest eviction, so there's no need to worry about live feed spoilers (assuming I ever watch the live feeds). Thanks for reading! 

Lose on, Luzon

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Let's just take a moment to look at where we're at after this premiere of Survivor Cagayan:

J'Tia annoyed her tribe, forced them to waste time building a worthless shelter, lagged behind in both the physical and mental portions of the immunity challenge, poured all of her tribe's rice in the fire, and dumped water on the fire. And she's still in the game.

Garrett put 2000 hours into preparing for the show, was the strongest person on his tribe, found the hidden immunity idol within minutes of starting the game, and convinced the tribe to do his bidding in the first tribal council. And he's been voted out.

The Luzon tribe is absolutely crazy. As most of them have come to realize themselves, they really don't live up to their label as brains.

David made a blunder minutes into the game by making Garrett his enemy and declaring him the weakest on their tribe. Choosing Garrett may have been a good move, if he'd had the right reason for it. If he had chosen Garrett and said, "I'm choosing him because he clearly isn't the weakest on our tribe, so I know he won't be offended by this," then Garrett probably would have understood. But David's reason was pretty much that he actually wanted Garrett out of the game. That mistake made David the first boot.

Garrett similarly made a mistake that cost him the game: The open-forum discussion. It's always a bad idea to let the person you're voting out know that you're voting them out. Garrett did this, but in that sense it actually worked out well for him, because it caused J'Tia to go crazy and make herself an even bigger target. I think it was just the fact that Garrett wasn't letting the others play their own game that turned them against him. Even when he revealed his alliance with Kass and Spencer at tribal council, I could understand why he was doing it. That would solidify to Kass that his real loyalties' lied with her, not with Tasha. But then he retracted what he said and started talking about the four and just dug himself into a hole.

J'Tia's mistakes were plenty and obvious. To think that I had thought of her as one of the most likely to win... I couldn't have been further from the truth. Unless she changes drastically in the second half of the game, she doesn't have a chance.

I liked Kass, Tasha, and Spencer in the episode, but even this group was making mistakes.

Tasha's biggest fault was admitting to her tribe how much she wanted to strategize. The goal in Suvivor is to play the strategic game without the others knowing that you're playing the strategic game, and Tasha pretty much told her tribe that she would be working behind some of their backs, lying to some of them. Not very smart.

Kass made her first mistake when she told J'Tia she would be voting for her. While I don't think that had anything to do with the fact that she ended up surviving the tribal council (Garrett would have pushed his agenda regardless), it's still something that shouldn't be done. Her second mistake was voting out Garrett. If she had kept Garrett, the Luzon tribe would have a great chance of starting to win some challenges. Even if they did lose one, Tasha would be voted out, not her. By eliminating Garrett, it will be very hard for the remaining Brains to start winning challenges. Tasha and J'Tia appear to be a pair, and if they decide they want to keep Spencer for the little brawn he brings to the tribe, Kass could find herself out next.

Spencer was the only Brain who actually played well. Just like I predicted, his arrogance in the pre-game interviews and confessionals did not appear during camp life. He laid low while also being a part of the strategy and decision making. He's found himself on the bottom of his tribe, but that's only because of how crazy his tribemates are playing. And I'm not so sure he's really on the bottom...

Kass must have had some good reason to vote out Garrett. She didn't like J'Tia, and Spencer said that she fought with Tasha in the first tribal council. So why would she side with J'Tia and Tasha? One of the scenes where she and Tasha are strategizing at the water's edge opens with Tasha saying something like "She'll be out next, I promise! This is our last chance to have the numbers!" The "she" Tasha is referring to must be J'Tia. I'm assuming what she's saying is that if Kass joins them to vote out Garrett now, they'll vote out J'Tia next. This would be appealing to Kass because at that point, she'd essentially get to choose between Spencer and Tasha should they lose a fourth challenge. She'd be in a power position. I think that's why she voted out Garrett. The only question is if Tasha was telling the truth; would she really vote out her closest ally J'Tia? If the Brains tribe loses again next week, which they unfortunately likely will, we'll find out. Kass and Spencer will want to vote out J'Tia, but if Tasha doesn't we could even end up with a fire making challenge (which I would expect J'Tia to lose).

The other factor on the Brains tribe is the hidden immunity idol. Garrett left it buried "near treemail" at camp. So will there be clues leading to its new location now? I hope so. Although the chances of the Brains tribe actually winning a clue are pretty slim. I really hope they do though. They may be the oddest tribe in history, but that's exactly why I'm still rooting for them.

Now onto the other tribes... let's start with Brawn. Right now it appears to be Tony and Trish on one side and everyone else on the other side united by their love for Cliff. But if Trish is accurate in saying that Lindsey isn't doing any work, that could be getting on the nerves of the other Aparri members too. And especially with Tony admitting to Sarah that he's a cop in the next episode, I think that Lindsey is set to be the first person voted out of Aparri, assuming they ever lose a challenge. I don't think they will lose many challenges throughout the season, so the other 5 may stay together, with Sarah, Tony, and Trish being the core three.

On the Beauty Tribe, we have the three pairs: Alexis and Jefra, LJ and Jeremiah, and Morgan and Brice. Brice tried to get Jeremiah on his side but Jeremiah didn't say much, besides how Jefra and Alexis are getting on his nerves, so I don't know that he's really with them. We never actually saw them make an agreement. I think his loyalties lie with LJ, and LJ will want to target Morgan and Brice for a couple reasons. One, he already suspects that Morgan has an idol or idol clue. And second, he seems to be close with Alexis. They were seen playing coconut bowling together and Alexis was the first to hug him after he won the second immunity challenge. Granted, that's not a lot to go off of, but I've just gotten some feeling that the two have some sort of bond. I wouldn't be surprised if an Alexis, LJ, Jeremiah, Jefra alliance already exists, and we just don't know about it. Regardless, I see the Beauty tribe less as three pairs and more as one chain: Jefra gets along with Alexis, who is close with LJ, who is bros with Jeremiah, who is attracted to Morgan, who is friends with Brice. Logically, the people in most danger would be those with the fewest connections: The two people on the ends of the chain, Jefra and Brice. I'd say Morgan is in just as much danger though, because LJ is suspicious of her and she probably isn't as good in the challenges as Brice. Plus, her connection with Jeremiah is likely to be overpowered by LJ's connection with Jeremiah. Morgan had a good episode, convincing almost everyone with her idol cover-up, but I still don't think she'll be around much longer. She's still my pick to get voted out if Beauty loses.

Some final thoughts about the premiere:

I loved when Garrett got scared by the spider. It was hilarious, but I don't fault him for it. I can totally relate.

Did anyone else notice Alexis' facial expressions while LJ was doing the puzzle in the second immunity challenge? They were perfect.

I don't understand Tony's spy shack at all. It looks like he's just standing outside the shelter listening. How is that a shack!?

I know that the brains tribe won't be completely starved without their rice. What was with those giant red and yellow fruit they were eating? It looked delicious, but it was also super crunchy...

It's probably a good thing that the Survivor pool isn't actually happening. Garrett would have picked up some points for finding the idol, but it's still not good that he was voted out second. And J'Tia and Spencer could both be out in the next couple of weeks. And they were my easy picks! Sarah's doing great though. She really could be a triple threat in this game: physical, social, and strategic, plus she's entertaining. And Alexis could still make it far. Overall though, my pool hopes would have plummeted after this first episode.

And that's all! What did you think about the premiere? Feel free to speak your mind in the comments! I'll be eagerly awaiting next week's episode; It looks like this will be a great season!

Survivor Cagayan Cast Preview!

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

We're only a week away from the start of Survivor's next season and my excitement levels are high. The cast has been out for quite some time now, and it's looking like a good one. There are plenty of players who actually seem like they are big fans of the show, and while I really love the brains tribe, there are some interesting players on the other tribes too who could have just as much game-playing ability as the smartest of the brains.

For the past couple years, I've joined a Survivor pool in which you pick 5 players before the season starts, and they earn you points based on how long they last, how many tribal and individual challenges they win, and how many hidden idols they find. So I came up with this great idea to base my preview blog on my thought process for choosing these players, only to learn that the pool wasn't happening this season... 

So I'm just going to pretend that it is. Following are my thoughts on each player, and the five I would have picked had there been a pool this season. Those five aren't necessarily the people I think will make the final 5 (that would be much too hard to predict), but they are the five I think have the best chances of going very deep into the game. 

Now, when the cast videos were first released, I gave each contestant a rating from 1 to 5 based on their bio, and another ranking from 1 to 5 based on their video. Unfortunately, I don't have those ratings with me currently and won't have them until a couple days before the show starts, and by that time I'll be studying for midterms and won't want to write a giant preview blog, so we'll have to make do without the ratings. It's not much of a loss anyways, because those ratings would have changed a lot after seeing all that I have since originally rating the players.

Anyways, without further ado, let us begin!

Aparri (Brawn) Tribe

Cliff is a former NBA player, and this immediately raised red flags with me. The problem with any sort of "celebrity" player is that the million dollar prize isn't much of an incentive for them, which means they have one less reason to try to win the game. If the survival aspect of the game-- the weather, lack of food and comfort, etc.-- gets tough, most players would endure because they are driven by their desire for money, but this won't apply to Cliff. He's a giant, which means the lack of food will be especially hard on him, and the only reason he would have to stay in the game would be to win the title of Sole Survivor, which may not be so important for him once he's actually out there, trying to weather the elements. While I don't see him quitting the game, I also don't see him trying very hard to stay in the game once he's targeted. And he will be targeted, simply because he appears to be very intimidating as a physical competitor. At best, I see Cliff being one of the first members of the jury. At worst, he could be the first one out of his tribe, especially if his former career is made public.

You only need to take one look at Lindsey to see that she will start this game as the odd one out. Based on her bio, I was convinced that she would be the first out of the Aparri tribe. However, after watching her video I felt a little better about her. She has a good sense of humour, so if she has enough time to build some solid relationships before her tribe goes to their first Tribal Council, she has a chance to survive, and make it deep into the game. However, she doesn't seem to have much game-knowledge, so while I can see her possibly being taken to the end as a goat, I don't think she will have any real control over the game or any chance to actually win.

After watching Sarah's videos and reading her bio, Sarah was one of my favourites on the Brawn tribe. I can't remember if she had the highest rating on the tribe, but I wouldn't be surprised if she did. However, I still wasn't really considering her as a pick for the pool. The best thing she had going for her was that she had identified Tony as a fellow cop, and she said she planned on having one person she could really trust and then building her alliance outward. If she and Tony did team up, they could be a powerful duo and probably at least make the merge together, unless the entire rest of the Aparri tribe voted against them. Despite this, it wasn't until Rob Cesternino and his wife Nicole both wanted to pick Sarah to win on the RHAP preview podcast that I really started to consider Sarah as a potential pool pick. And, since then, two of the Rob has a Podcast bloggers have picked her too. Jeff Probst also had good things to say about her in the cast assessment. It seems almost everyone likes Sarah's chances, and they have me convinced. Sarah has what it takes to win: She knows the game, is likable, and doesn't seem like she'll be overeager to make moves and overplay, which would not be good. Plus, if she has an alliance with Tony, he will surely be the bigger target of the two, which gives her a little bit of insurance should things start going south for the pair.

Tony has OK chances, thanks to his possible alliance with Sarah. He seems to have reasonable knowledge of the game. But, unlike Sarah, he probably won't be as likable-- I can see him being much too bossy for the other players' tastes-- and he is definitely the type who will play too hard, too fast. If Sarah can't hold him back, he could screw both of them by making impulsive game moves early on. He says he wants to be like Russell Hantz, so you can bet he'll be putting a target on his back by looking for an idol right off the bat. Tony could probably make the merge pretty easily, but after that his gameplay will start to catch up to him and he'll be a very big target. I can't see him playing as well strategically as Russell Hantz, so I think he'll be voted out long before the finals. And even if he somehow made finals, he likely won't have many friends on the jury and it would be tough for him to win the game.

Trish reminds me a lot of Survivor Caramoan's Sherri. I definitely think she can make it far in the game, but I'm not sure that she will be in the driver's seat at any point. She seems to be very likable, which is great for her chances of making it far, but also makes her a threat when it gets close to the final three. If she does manage to make strategic decisions throughout the game, she may make enough people angry that she won't be viewed as a likeability threat, which may be the best case scenario for her in the endgame. I can see Trish winning, but she would have to play the game mostly with her head rather than her heart, and I'm not sure that she can do that.

Lots of people have compared Woo to Fabio, and I can see where they're coming from. Woo seems to be very interested in having an adventure, and not so interested in playing the game of Survivor. Woo will not be making any strategic decisions this season, and I think he'll be a bit of a non-factor. Perhaps comparable to Philippines' Carter. His likeability and challenge strength can take him well into the merge, but unless he wins all of the immunity's at the end, I don't think Woo makes the final three.

Luzon (Brains) Tribe

I don't like David's chances for the same reason I don't like Cliffs chances. He's the president of the Miami Marlins, so the money isn't going to be a big deal for him. That being said, I don't see the elements being as hard on him as they are on Cliff. He's the oldest of the Brains tribe and is used to being a leader, so it seems that he is destined to take on the leadership role on this tribe, which is a precarious position in Survivor. If he is too bossy, the tribe could vote him out first. But, I think the tribe will be more worried about removing the weakest links challenge-wise, and that could give David the chance he needs to get himself into a strong alliance. As long as his occupation remains a secret, his chances actually aren't so bad. If Garrett is part of his alliance, Garrett will be the bigger target come merge time. I can actually see David making it to the end, and winning. But this is only if he can overcome his label as a leader that he will inevitably get at the beginning of the game. I'm cheering against David if only because I like the rest of the Brains tribe too much, so I'm just gonna go ahead and say he doesn't make the merge. He may survive one Tribal, but if the Brains go to Tribal Council again, it's not a stretch to say they could  vote out their leader. I also get the sense that they;ll be annoyed by him, but I'm not sure where that's coming from, because I actually found him quite funny in his video.

I actually remember the rating I gave Garrett during my initial cast assessment: 9.5. Garrett has a whole lot going for him. He's clearly the most physically fit on his tribe. He's a Survivor superfan. He's a pro-poker player, which should mean he's good at reading people and lying and all that pokery stuff that I know nothing about. He says he put 2000 hours of preparation into this, which is just insane. I think his challenge strength will get him through the early game, but after that he will have a giant bullseye on his back. He'll have to keep other big targets in the game to give himself a chance. I can see him starting the game in a Brains alliance, but I don't think him and Spencer can work together for the entire game. I see a power struggle between him and Spencer, with Spencer likely coming out on top simply because Garrett is clearly the more intimidating player. However, I'm not ruling Garrett out. He's easily one of the biggest Survivor fans on the season, and he won't be going down without a fight. Even if he doesn't make it to the end, he'll probably win some individual challenges, which translates into points in the non-existent Survivor pool. Garrett won't have an easy time with it, but he is definitely capable of winning the game.

I would be surprised if J'Tia didn't at least make the final 7. She's a big fan of Survivor, she's smart, she's competitive, she's likeable, and she doesn't appear very threatening. Plus she's an engineer, which gives her major bonus points. J'Tia should have no problem getting herself into an alliance in the beginning. I can't see her being much of a target until the endgame. Like Sarah, everyone seems to love her chances, and unlike with Sarah, I had come to the same conclusion on my own. I think she has a great chance of winning the whole thing. The one thing she has to watch out for are her fellow Brains-- she can't underestimate them. Many of them know the game just as well or more than she does. If she can anticipate and prepare for the moves that they will want to make, then she should have no problem getting to the end.

Kass was one of my favourites based on her bio and video. I like her slightly less now because she's really annoying on Twitter, but I'd still like to see her make it far in the game. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem very likely. Kass seems to have a personality that the others will either love or hate. She appears to be the physically weakest on the Brains tribe, so unless she can get herself into an alliance early on, she could very likely be the first boot from her tribe. She does have some things going for her, though: She's a big fan of the game and will appear very non-threatening. If she can make it past the first couple tribal councils, she will have a great chance of going all the way. But to survive the first days, she'll have to just lay back and go along with her tribe. She appears to be very argumentative, and if she's disagreeing with the rest of her tribe in the beginning, she will be the first Luzon member voted out. It's worth noting that she has this big Twitter feud going on with Tony. They hate each other, which makes me think that they've spent some time together. That would either mean they both made the merge, or they both were voted out early and went on the same pre-merge-boots-trip together. Since I'm expecting Tony to make the merge, that gives me hope that Kass will, too.

Some people think Spencer will be the first out, others think he'll make it far, but everyone seems to agree on one thing: He can't win. Well, everyone except me. I think that if Spencer makes the final 3, he wins the game. I'm not positive that he'll make the final 3-- I can see him having a game similar to Malcolm's in the Philippines: He gets to the final five or four and then messes up and gets voted out. But I definitely think he'll be around for a long time. While he does come off a little arrogant in his videos, I think he's smart enough and able enough to keep that in check during the game. As a fellow guy who thinks he's the smartest person ever, I can relate to Spencer. If he's anything like me, he won't be anything like that around his tribemates, unless he gets to a point with them that he considers them close enough friends and knows they won't hold it against him if acts a little arrogant. I think he will actually be in a similar position as J'Tia: He's a superfan, will probably be likeable, and doesn't appear threatening. The fact that he may not be as likeable as J'Tia can actually increase his chances, as people will be okay with going to the end with him. Like with J'Tia, I'll be shocked if he doesn't at least make final 7. Also, there's a good chance that he's the first RHAP listener to play Survivor, which is a good thing for him.

Tasha has everything going for her that Spencer and J'tia do with the exception of one thing-- Brains. I'm sure she's a pretty smart woman, but nothing about her screams Brains tribe, and she doesn't appear to be as much of a Survivor fan as them. She's likeable, and strong enough to avoid being voted out as a weak-link but no so strong to be seen as a big threat after the merge. So I can see her going very far-- even all the way to the final three. But I don't think she'll have any control over her fate and I don't think she'll win the game. She simply doesn't have the Survivor know-how to play on the same level as her Brains tribemates.

Solana (Beauty) Tribe

Many people have been calling Alexis the black horse going into this season, and that's the exact same feeling I got about her too. After reading her bio, I felt that she would be a really good player. But then her video was a bit of a disappointment. I can see her being one of the first boots, or I could see her being great. She said that she considers herself more of a brain than a brawn or beauty, so I have to assume she has some intelligence. She doesn't seem like a Survivor superfan, but she says her dad loves the show so I assume she's watched a lot of it with him growing up, so she should have a decent game understanding. And she's a psychology student, which is a definite plus. The game is all about psychology, so she should have an advantage in that sense. If the beauty tribe loses a lot of challenges, though, she could easily be gone early. Her best chance would be to team up with the other girls and take a couple of the guys out. Even if she doesn't, though, I see her at least surviving the first Tribal Council, because I don't see Morgan being very like by her tribe. I think Alexis has a chance to win. But I also think she has a good chance of placing in pretty much any other position. So I don't really have a good prediction for her.



Brice sticks out like a sore thumb, which could make him an easy first target for the Beauty tribe. His best bet seems to be to team up with the girls, but that would leave Jeremiah and LJ on the outs and I don't know that the girls will be comfortable voting out their two strongest men, so my hopes aren't high that that alliance will actually happen. That doesn't mean there's no hope for Brice, though. There are lots of ways this Beauty tribe can unfold. Maybe Morgan gets on the tribes nerves and becomes the first target. A couple could emerge and put a target on their own backs. Brice has a loud personality, so it'll be hard for him to stay under the radar. He'll have a target on his back the whole game, but that's exactly why I can see him winning over a jury if he makes the final 3. I just don't think he'll have the social game to make it that far.



I think I wrote off Jefra right away when I read her bio, because I considered her to be the token recruited pageant girl who would have no chance of actually winning the game. That was my bad. I must've just skimmed over her bio or something because I somehow missed the fact that even though she's just 23, she's already gone through a lot. She's a cancer survivor, and she overcame addiction. She's also an outdoors girl, so the elements shouldn't be as hard on her as they might be on her female tribesmates. She seems extremely likeable, and will probably be better in physical challenges than the other girls on her tribe, so she shouldn't be an early target. If the Beauty tribe goes on a losing streak, which they easily could, that's when she could have a tough time staying in the game. Also, if she develops a romance with fellow southerner Jeremiah (which seems likely considering the two can already be seen together in some footage (I think)) than she could find herself being one of the first to go. Her tribe could try to break up the couple and they'd definitely vote her out over Jeremiah. If Jefra can get to the merge, though, she has a good chance of making it very far, and I can see her winning.



Jeremiah compares himself to J.T., and I would agree with that. I thought the same thing as soon as I saw his video. However, I'm not sure that Jeremiah can do as well as J.T. did in the game. He doesn't seem to have a very good understanding of the strategic game. He will probably be very well-liked, but that alone can only take him so far, especially when he'll be seen as an individual challenge threat. I think he'll make the merge, as long as that Brice and the girls alliance doesn't happen, but I don't think he'll make it much farther than that. I definitely don't see Jeremiah winning this game.



Like David on the Brains tribe, LJ seems destined to take the leadership role on Solana. This may not be such a bad thing for LJ though. He seems like he'll be very calm and level-headed, patient with his tribe and liked by them. He is well-suited for the leadership role, and is capable of building trust with his tribe by being the leader. I think the Beauty tribe will respect his decisions and appreciate him as a leader, and he should stick around at least until the merge. My one worry for him in the early game is that we already know he will be doing the puzzle portion of the first immunity challenge rather than the physical portion, and if his tribe loses that challenge they may be upset with him for not doing the physical work. I really don't think that will be enough for them to vote him out though. He doesn't talk a lot about the strategic game, so I'm worried about how he'll fare after the merge when he'll be a big target, but if he can make it to the end he can surely win the game.



I can easily see Morgan being the first boot of Survivor Cagayan. She won't be an asset in challenges, and she doesn't seem likeable enough to build the relationships necessary to be a strategic force in the game. She may be dragged all the way to the end, but she won't win. She doesn't appear to be a Survivor fan. She thinks the others will do what she wants just because she's beautiful. I really can't see her game being good in any aspect-- not strategically, not physically, not even socially. More than anyone else on the cast, I am convinced that Morgan cannot win the game.

My Picks!

So, who from the cast would I pick in this theoretical Survivor pool? My first three choices were easy:

Garrett Adelstein- Garrett could be on any of the three tribes. I think he'll be a force to be reckoned with physically, strategically, and socially. He could very easily end up with the biggest target on his back of anyone in the game, but I think it would be foolish to bet against this superfan.

J'Tia Taylor- J'Tia seems very game-smart and likeable, but doesn't appear very threatening. In many ways this seems like her game to lose.

Spencer Bledsoe- Same as J'Tia, except a bigger fan of the show and potentially less likeable. I think Spencer will succeed in controlling his arrogance and go very far in the game. In the original Meet the Cast Video, Spencer is portrayed as the season's villain, which also makes me think that he'll be around for a long while.

I liked the Brains tribe so much, at first I wanted to choose all 5 from that tribe. But that wouldn't have been very smart as me...

Sarah Lacina- After everyone began to rave about how great Sarah was, I began to seriously consider her as a pick. It didn't take long to become convinced that she had a very good chance of going all the way. (It's worth noting that last season, I picked Rachel because Rob and Nicole Cesternino both picked her to win, and that didn't go well for me at all. Now I'm picking Sarah for pretty much the same reason...)

My last pick was the hardest. Did I want to pick another Brain? Tasha or Kass could both do very well. Or do I want a representative from the Beauty tribe? LJ and Alexis both struck me as potentially great players. Eventually I decided on....

Alexis Maxwell- It's always good to have one "secret weapon" on your pool team: Someone who not a lot of people will probably pick but who might do great in the game. In One World, Kat was my secret weapon. Dawson in Philippines and Tina in Blood vs. Water were also secret weapons. Sometimes it pays off to take a risk and pick them, sometimes it doesn't. But my initial gut reaction about Alexis was that she'd do very well, and so she's earned a spot in my Survivor pool team that doesn't actually exist.

And that's that. This blog entry is much too long already and I don't even think I'm that good at this pre-season prediction stuff. So sorry if this was really boring :s

Do you agree with my assessment? Express your thoughts in the comments!