The Ways to Play the Game

By now, a significant portion of the world's population is participating in a game so inexplicably appealing, yet so simple that it's known only as "the game". For some unknown reason, despite it's simplicity and the fact that it will have literally zero impact on the improvement of your life, it can be extremely satisfying to cause a friend, enemy, or family member to lose the game, yet exceedingly frustrating to lose the game yourself. 

For those who don't know about the game, you may want to stop reading here. Once I explain the rules, you will become a player and will be playing--and losing--the game for the rest of your life. 

There really is only one rule to the game: Every time you think of the game, you lose the game. That's it. You can't win.

Of course, when you do lose the game, the best thing to do is to make as many other people lose too. Nothing cures frustration like causing enough frustration to dwarf your own, and hopefully the satisfaction you gain from causing many acquaintances to lose the game will overcome the disappointment you'll feel for your own, single loss.

Different people approach and think of the game in different ways, and thus will employ their own "strategy" while playing it. Below, I will describe and evaluate, with absolutely no exaggeration at all, the 8 most common "strategies" for the game, starting with the ones that will seriously mess up your life, and working up to the greatest strategy of all time!

8. The "Kids These Days and Their Silly Games" Strategy:

If you are employing this strategy, you consider yourself too good for the game. If you think of it yourself, you won't bother telling anyone else. If someone else tells you, you may acknowledge the fact that you lost, but if you do you'll be sure to make sure everyone knows that you don't actually care. The problem is, it is impossible to not actually care. Once the losses pile up, they will eat at you and tear you apart from the inside out. One day you will break, go on a rampage, and probably end up in prison. This strategy will actually ruin your life, which makes it the worst of the bunch. If you are someone who commonly says "I'm not playing" whenever someone reminds you of the game, you are probably using this strategy. If you know the rules of the game, you are playing, and there is no escape. Saying "I'm not playing" is simply code for "I don't care" (which, as stated above, is also impossible).

7. The "As Long As I Don't Lose" Strategy:

If you're using this strategy, you will dedicate your life to forgetting the game. Also known as the "Winning is Everything" strategy, because if there were one way to win the game, it would be to forget of its existence. If you use this strategy, you are either so weak that you can't handle losing the game, or are so competitive that you think you NEED to win the game, so you do everything possible to remove the game from your life. If your friends are playing the game, you will cut all ties with those friends. You will move hundreds of miles away to some secluded farmhouse where you hope no one knows about the game. If you are reminded of the game, you WILL remind anyone else nearby of the game, because if you are going to lose, you might as well not lose alone. Unfortunately, if you are dedicating your life to forgetting the game, that means the game has become intertwined with your life, and will never be forgotten. In fact, it will probably be remembered even more often. All it would take is for someone to ask you why you moved to this farmhouse, and you will lose the game, and then every time you look at your farmhouse it will remind you of the game so you will be forced to move to somewhere even more secluded and the cycle will continue until eventually you die in the middle of the Arctic with no friends and all too much frustration about losing the game, which will be the last thing you think about. 

6. The "Mr. Nice Guy" Strategy:

Also known as the "Ms. Nice Girl" Strategy. If you are using this strategy, you don't want to put anyone else through the pain and frustration of losing the game, so every time you think of it, you just keep it to yourself. If someone else reminds you of the game, you will express your sadness and frustration because you DO care, but you will not go on to remind everyone else of the game. Because that would be too mean. Of course, keeping it all bottled up inside can lead to breakdown similar to the one caused by the "Kids These Days and Their Silly Games" Strategy, but since "Mr. Nice Guys" or "Ms. Nice Girls" admit that they do care and know that they have good intentions for being absolutely horrible at the game, they are better at dealing with the losses and have an easier time avoiding the breakdown.

5. The "If I'm Going Down, I'm Taking You And You And You And Everyone Else Down With Me" Strategy:

If you are playing with this strategy, you are someone who just CAN'T...STOP...THINKING... OF... THE... STUPID... GAME! You get so angry about losing all the time that you just give up. You accept the fact that you will lose at every possible moment, so you decide that all you can do is make everyone else lose too. You set an alarm on your phone for every half hour. Whenever it goes off, you remind everyone around you about the game. You then text everyone on your contact list about the game. Since your grandparents don't text, you give them a call instead. You send a letter that says "the game" to your distant relatives who you have no other way to contact. You post on facebook about the game, tweet about the game, and instagram a picture of a piece of paper that says "the game". By the time you finish, you have 5 minutes to enjoy yourself before the cycle begins again. First you lose sleep. Then your job. Then your friends, your family, your life. But, at least you have the satisfaction of making hundreds, or even thousands of people lose the game every half hour. That's enough to keep you going.

4. The "That'll Show Him" Strategy:

Also known as the "That'll Show Her" Strategy. If you are using this strategy, you have decided to use the game as a way to ruin the life of the person who you just can't take anymore. Basically, you are a toned down version of someone using the "If I'm Going Down, I'm Taking You and You and You and Everyone Else Down With Me" Strategy. You set the half-hour alarm on your phone, but all you do when it goes off is send a text to that person you hate that says "the game". You are so proud of yourself for finally thinking of a way to get back at them for everything they've done to you. You can't wait to see how torn apart they are after days, weeks, and years of losing the game every half hour. Of course, by doing this you have also given up your own hopes of not losing the game, but it's worth it because he or she who you hate most is losing it too. Like the previous strategy, you will lose sleep, but unlike the previous strategy, you will not lose your life, family, friends, or job (unless the person you hate is your boss). Even though you are making less people lose the game, this strategy is slightly better than the previous because it doesn't completely ruin your life.

3. The "What Game?" Strategy:

If you are playing with this strategy, you will feign ignorance whenever someone else reminds you of the game. On the inside, you'll accept the loss and feel the frustration, but you won't let your opponent see that. You'll pretend you have no idea what they're talking about. If not used smartly, this strategy isn't very good because you will never get the satisfaction of making other people lose the game. However, it is possible to use this strategy in clever ways, which makes it not completely worthless. For example, if someone reminds you of the game, you could turn to someone who you know is playing the game and say "Do YOU know what this "game" that they're talking about is?" ... and Voila! You just caused that person to lose the game. Also, if you feign ignorance long enough people might grow bored of even reminding you of the game, which means using this strategy could eventually make you lose less. If you are someone who commonly says "What Game?" when reminded of the game, you are probably using the "What Game?" Strategy.

2. The "Pay it Forward" Strategy:

If you are using this strategy, you have a very simple way to play the game effectively: Whenever you think of the game, pay the loss forward by telling everyone nearby. You don't go overboard like someone using the "If I'm Going Down, I'm Taking You and You and You and Everyone Else Down With Me" Strategy. You only tell the people who happen to be around you when you think of it. If you are alone, you may text your friends, but nothing more drastic than that. This way, you get to cause a fair amount of losses without making people so mad at you that your life is ruined. The worst that can happen is that lots of people will try to take revenge on you by reminding you of the game in the future, but that's not so bad. This is the most common strategy. If you are someone who is playing the game, you are probably using this strategy.

1. The "Pay it Forward to a Pay it Forwarder" Strategy:

Here it is: The very best strategy for playing the game. If you are playing with this strategy, you have identified one or two people as players who use the "Pay it Forward" Strategy. Every time you think of the game, you tell only one or both of these players, and no one else. And then you watch as the one or two losses you have just created blossom into many more losses right before your eyes. Since the "Pay it Forwarders" will tell everyone around them, you have just created dozens of losses with minimal effort. Even better, all of those losers, besides the "Pay it Forwarders" themselves, will blame the "Pay it Forwarders" for their loss rather than blaming you. Thus, if they try to get back at the person who made them lose, you'll be safe from their revenge. However, if using this strategy, you MUST choose your "Pay it Forwarders" wisely. If you choose someone who will turn into a "If I'm Going Down, I'm Taking You and You and You and Everyone Else Down With Me" or a "That'll Show Him", then you will end up losing the game every half hour for the rest of your suddenly sad life. But, if you can successfully choose some "Pay it Forwarders" who won't go crazy, then congratulations! You are now one of the game's greatest players.

Survivor Blog Schedule Changes

Hey all.

It is with great sorrow (not really) that I must inform you that I have decided to discontinue my weekly Survivor blogs. The combination of how busy I am with school and the fact that I'm quite sure no one actually reads my blogs has driven me to take this (hardly) drastic measure. If you are, in fact, a reader, and would like me to continue, please leave a comment. If there are enough of you secretly reading out there, I may reconsider what I have decided.

I may still post Survivor blogs when I have lots of time and/or I really have the intense desire to discuss the show. If you want to know whenever I post a new blog, follow me on Google + or on Twitter @brooksmac14. Thank you for your understanding.

Note: Big Brother Canada blogs will continue to be posted weekly.

BBCAN: The Game Begins

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Big Brother in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, interviews with eliminated players, side show, and occasionally the live feeds to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Technically, two weeks have passed in the second season of Big Brother Canada 2, but it wasn't until this latest week that it truly felt like the game had begun. There's a lot to talk about strategy-wise, so let's get right into it, shall we?

The main question for the majority of the houseguests this week was whether it would be better to evict Paul or Kyle. As these two were arguably my two least favourite players this season, I was absolutely thrilled. And then Kyle had to suddenly become this really great guy and ruin the moment. In the end, it was Kyle who was booted for being the bigger threat. Many have pointed out that simply having muscles doesn't actually make you much of a threat in the Big Brother house, and while this is true I still think the house made the right move in evicting Kyle over Paul. I think it's safe to say that Kyle would be a bigger threat in physical challenges, while Paul would be a bigger threat in mental ones, so challenge-wise they're actually pretty even. But Kyle is clearly the more likeable of the two. He was on the outs, but it seemed that whenever someone got to know him, they were surprised by how nice he was. Paul, on the other hand, is probably the least liked in the house. Plus, he'd proved his strategic incompetence in the first week. He's not a threat in any sense of the word. 

Paul's strategy to "be the bad guy" after being nominated followed his habit of making absolutely terrible game moves. While it's true that people may want to bring unlikeable people to the end, you can't be so unlikeable that the other players literally can't stand living with you. To Paul's credit, he seems to have realized his mistakes and is making some good steps towards recovery. In Thursday night's episode, he apologized to Andrew and admitted that he acted out of line this week, and that he was not going to do that again. I don't think Paul is going to recover fully from his early blunders. He still won't win, and really I still don't see him making the jury. But his decision to admit he was wrong rather than stand by what he'd said previously will take some of the heat off him and may buy him a few more weeks. 

Right now, the First Five alliance seems to be in control of the house. But resentment building up against Andrew may spell the end for this alliance. Last week, I was impressed with Kenny, but this week I'm starting to think once again that he won't be around for very long. He is driven to win competitions, which really has no value this early in the game and only serves to make the target on his back bigger. He's very close with Andrew, and so it seems reasonable that some of the hate towards Andrew may be directed at Kenny as well. I will say that his move to test Heather's loyalty by feeding her false information was crafty and effective. But I'm not sure it was really necessary. Carrying out the plan involved explaining it to Rachelle, who is now aware that Kenny is playing a sneakily strategic game. Plus, if Heather giving information to Rachelle makes her untrustworthy, doesn't that mean that Kenny doesn't consider Rachelle a close ally? Unless Kenny has some secret alliance with Rachelle that Heather doesn't know about, I would be wary to continue trusting Kenny wholeheartedly if I were Rachelle. Plus, the fact that Kenny smokes immediately makes me like him less.

While Kenny has disappointed me this week, Jon has really impressed me. I loved the scene where he and Neda were in the bedroom talking about the others. Both he and Neda have a good strategic sense and they can be a deadly team in this game. With the target on Andrew and Kenny's backs getting bigger, the First Five alliance may soon lose power, and I can see Jon and Neda controlling things behind the scenes. Neda was my pre-season pick to win and she's still doing well. She went on the block but didn't do anything crazy. Her crying probably only reinforced in the others' heads that she's not a threat.

Arlie, my other pre-season favourite, is doing well too. He's in the First Five alliance but doesn't appear to have the target on his back that Kenny and Andrew do. He hasn't been involved in any conflicts and his pre-season cockiness doesn't appear to be prevalent in his interactions with the other houseguests. My one complaint with Arlie is that he hasn't hidden the fact that he's there to win. From the day the game started, everyone knew that Arlie was a giant Big Brother fan. His move this week to overdramatically throw the HoH competition may have had the desired effect-- to appear weak and gain sympathy-- on some houseguests, but it may also have shown them that Arlie is someone who will never give up. If he tried that hard just to win the HoH competition, to what measures will he go to avoid elimination? Arlie may have simultaneously decreased the "competition threat" target on his back and increased the "strategic threat" one.

Other players that have impressed me are Ika and Rachelle. We haven't seen a lot of either of their strategic games, but the little we saw of Rachelle on Sunday night's episode told me that she had more game sense than I had initially thought. When she was told by Heather that Kenny didn't trust her, instead of taking her word for it, she checked with Kenny to see what was going on. She seems concerned simply with making everyone like her and trust her, and if she succeeds at this she'll be able to make the big moves when she needs to later in the game. Ika has a louder personality, but we haven't seen any houseguests say they didn't like her, which tells me that they enjoy her personality. Or the editing just isn't showing any annoyance the others have of her. Either way, she's funny in the diary room so I hope she sticks around. Plus, she may be bold enough to target Andrew and Kenny with her HoH reign this week, which would be a lot of fun.

The last thing we saw this week was Allison entering the house. First of all, I was shocked by this because these "[Insert country here] votes!" twists never seem to go my way. I am so excited to see Alison play the game, and she joins Neda and Arlie as my favourites. We saw her beginning to come up with her story when she met the houseguests, and it will be really interesting to see how the others react to her appearance. She'll surely have a target on her back for entering the game late, but she's knowledgeable when it comes to Big Brother, and I don't doubt that she can survive this week and making a deep run in the game, and maybe even win (I would not be able to say the same had Scott entered the house. The fact that he's such a huge personality paired with the target he'd have for entering the game late would almost surely result in his elimination next Thursday)

That's all for this week! What are your thoughts on the season so far? Sound off with a comment!

Dumping the Rice Dumper

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Phew. That was close.

I can't remember a time I've wanted someone out more than J'Tia, or someone in more than Spencer in last night's episode. And I really thought Spencer would be voted out. Luckily, I was wrong, and with the tribe swap next week, Spencer and Kass and Tasha will all have new life in the game. Hopefully the Brain genocide has come to an end, at least for now.

But of course I'm going to be a little biased in my analysis of the latest Tribal Council, considering how badly I wanted J'Tia out. But really, all J'Tia offered Kass and Tasha was loyalty. It was the right move to vote her out because she'd be unpredictable, a loose cannon that could potentially ruin they're games with her impulsive actions. She simply wouldn't be a reliable ally. On the other hand, Spencer acts rationally. He too claims that he'll be loyal, but even if that's not true, Spencer would be the bigger target for the other tribes come tribe swap or merge time. So Kass and Tasha would be able to flip against Spencer even more easily than he could flip against them. But the biggest reason for keeping Spencer/ousting J'Tia is challenges. The Brains tribe can't be sure that there will be a tribe swap before the merge. There have been only two seasons before with three tribes, and while both of those had tribe shake-ups of some sort after 4 people had been voted out, that's not a very large sample size, and in Survivor, you never know what can happen. If they were to vote out Spencer on the assumption that there would be a tribe swap, and then there wasn't a tribe swap, they all could have been voted out pre-merge. That's much too big a risk to take.

Spencer didn't say a whole lot to convince them to keep him, but clearly it was enough. He got across the points he needed to make: he'd be loyal, he'd help them win challenges, and J'Tia was too unpredictable to rely on. He didn't overcomplicate things, and by keeping his argument simple he was better able to convince the others that he would be reliable in the future. I definitely think Kass and Tasha deserve credit for making the right decision, but Spencer deserves just as much credit for arguing his case.

Shifting gears to the Brawn tribe, I'm really disappointed that Sarah is truly buying Tony's lies hook, line, and sinker, to the point where she actually tried to throw a challenge to get Cliff out. I'm still hoping that she'll catch on soon, but at this point Tony deserves lots of credit for pulling the wool over her eyes. Plus, he seemed to be more laid back this episode: He's not overplaying as much as I expected him to, and has found himself in a great position in his tribe.

It's clear that Sarah's not going to be comparing notes with Cliff and Lindsey at this point about whether or not they actually wanted her out, so her one hope for finding out the truth is Woo. Woo now knows that Sarah is targeting Cliff, and if Woo brings that information back to Cliff, maybe Cliff will approach Sarah and ask her why. That seems like the only scenario at this point that would result in Tony's lie being unravelled, but considering Woo seemed on board to vote out Cliff, even that seems unlikely. It looks like Tony will really pull this one off.

On the Beauty tribe, I really like that Morgan is actually playing the game. By calling out Jeremiah in front of the others, and saying he was the one who came to her and Brice wanting to get LJ out, she's planting seeds of distrust for Jeremiah in her tribemates. While I'm not sure that that would be enough to save her at this point, it's great to see that she's not just going to sit down and die. Knowing that she is at least a little game savvy bodes well for her going into the tribe swap.

We know that next week the tribes will be shaken up. It seems safe to say that three tribes will become two, and Jeff Probst confirmed in this weeks Entertainment Weekly interview that the tribe swap will be done randomly, which means the possibilities are endless.

Since the Brawn tribe has six members, it is most likely that each of the new tribes will have 3 former Brawn members. If this ends up happening, could we see the 4 non-Brawn members on each tribe teaming up to take out the Brawn? Especially with the fractures in the Brawn tribe, it seems likely that the next person voted out will be someone from the Brawn tribe. Even if they aren't split with three brawn on each tribe, and one tribe has a Brawn majority, if Sarah is on the same tribe as Cliff and/or Lindsey, she'll probably target them.

The Beauty Tribe has fractures too, with Morgan as the odd one out, so its possible, given the right tribe configuration, that a Beauty is voted out next. The Brains, for once, appear to be safe. They probably won't target each other, and their weakness and small number after the first part of the game will make them appear harmless to the others. The problem is that Malcolm and Denise of Survivor Philippines are still fresh on these players minds, so they might be wary of letting the remnants of the Brains tribe stick around.

In the end though, with all of the conflicts going on within the Brawn and Beauty tribes, I think the remaining Brain members will be able to slide through to the merge relatively easily. Live on, Luzon!

BBCAN: An Irritating Case of HoHitis

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Big Brother in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, interviews with eliminated players, side show, and occasionally the live feeds to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

DanuhNa Na Nuh Na. DanuhNa Na Na Na. DanuhNa Na Nuh Na Na Naaaaaaaaa!

I'd forgotten about that Big Brother Canada melody. It's very catchy!

Unfortunately, the show hasn't given a whole lot to write about here. Of the two episodes we've seen so far, a good half of the time has been spent introducing us to the houseguests and secret houseguests, so we didn't see a lot of the strategy behind Paul's nominations and Anick's eviction.

Although maybe it's just as straightforward as it seems. Anick clearly didn't fit in with the rest of the house. That, paired with her being the first to forfeit the HoH challenge, was very likely enough to make her an easy first target for the whole house. Andrew being nominated seems like it could've been fairly straightforward as well. He was the biggest physical threat of the six people who gave up HoH before Paul made his deal, and his obnoxious attitude was rubbing many the wrong way. Ika's nomination seemed the most odd. We didn't see any evidence of her not getting along with anyone besides Anick, and if Paul's reason for putting her up was really because she didn't pretend to be into Anick's little ceremony thing, that would be a little ridiculous. Paul said he thought she "wasn't willing to play the game" because of her actions towards Anick, but wouldn't that be a good reason not to want Ika out?

Paul's gameplay so far is downright horrible. He made enemies of six people in the first HoH competition by making his deal to win the competition. Winning HoH shouldn't have been important for him, as all being the first HoH can do is put a target on your back in future weeks. Then, after he won HoH, he let the power get to his head, and the others noticed. Usually it doesn't bother me when people get HoHitis. But this time it made me especially not like Paul. I think it's because the typical person who suddenly think they're the most powerful person in the house by winning HoH is someone like Big Brother Canada's first season's Tom Plant. Someone who you would actually expect to act that way. But I thought Paul, being older than the other contestants, would be wiser as well. I thought his only struggles would be with the social game, but clearly he's struggling with the strategic game as well. I'll be shocked if Paul makes it to jury.

So if Paul's nominations were really not based on much, is there any strategy going on in the house? Any alliances? Of course there are, and hopefully we will get to see them in the coming episodes. The only one we know of now is the "First Five" alliance. Based on the people who held up one and then five fingers as they voted in the Diary Room, there is an alliance between Arlie, Kenny, Sarah, Sabrina, and Andrew, the first five players to enter the house. I can see this alliance actually running things in the house, if the other houseguests don't know they're together. They've got some savvy players, and not so savvy players (like Andrew) who will at least be good at winning competitions.

It's too early to tell for sure, though, how effective this alliance will be. Hopefully the next episode fills us in on some of the other alliances forming in the house. Until then, there's really not a lot of strategic analysis to do here.

What I can do is give some updated impressions on some of the houseguests. Again, I haven't seen enough footage of many of them to really change how I feel about them since my first impressions, but a couple of them have impressed or disappointed me.

I didn't feel good about Anick's chances pre-game, and obviously I was right. But, I have to say that I absolutely loved her quirkiness, and am sad to see her go. I'm sure she would have been very entertaining to watch had she lasted a little longer.

My pre-game favourites, Neda and Arlie, have done nothing to disappoint me. Arlie seems to have gotten himself into a solid alliance, and while we haven't seen a lot of Neda, that at least means she hasn't done anything to hurt her game. She just seems to be staying under the radar, which is great for this early stage of the game.

As mentioned previously, Paul has really disappointed me. He said he wanted to play to the audience Chilltown style, and he's doing a very poor job of that. Doesn't he remember that Chilltown would never win an HoH when they didn't need to? The lengths that Paul went to to win the first HoH is simply outrageous. He's made a ton of enemies and is greatly overestimating his own strategic abilities. Thankfully, it's safe to say we won't have to watch Paul play for much longer.

I may have been a little hard on Kenny pregame because he said he'd miss his dog the most, but that turned out to be a fairly common thing. He is part of the only alliance we know of, and seems to be getting along fine with the houseguests. Seeing his beard and knowing the types of gay contestants usually cast by these types of shows, I was expecting Kenny to be one of those crazy contestants who really has no chance of winning. But Kenny is fitting in great, seems to have a good social game and a better strategic sense than I initially thought. He said in his "meet the cast" video that he plans on hiding his sexuality and then making a big deal of revealing it to people individual to gain their trust, and this could actually work very well for him. 

Kyle is someone I hated pre-game, and I still don't particularly like him. But I have to say, he's pretty entertaining in the diary room. Turns out he can form complete sentences, which is a lot more than I expected of him!

I thought Jon was going to be an obnoxious jerk along with Kyle and Andrew, but we haven't seen any evidence of that so far. Then again, we haven't seen much of anything. But I'm feeling a little more hopeful for Jon now.

The other houseguests haven't had enough airtime for me to really form new opinions on them. We were introduced to the three secret houseguests this week though, so here are some thoughts on them.

I really see nothing special in Nate. He doesn't seem to be a giant superfan, or a big personality, or anything. He's just boring.

I don't want Scott to get voted in, although, knowing Canada, he'll probably end up being the Final HG. He's clearly being portrayed as this season's Gary, and we know how much Canada loved Gary. I had nothing against Gary, but we'll be watching him all season on the Side Show. One Gary is enough for me. 

That leaves Allison. I'll be voting for her to enter the game. She has more personality than Nate, and more game knowledge than Scott (I watched a little War Room live feeds. Didn't see anything that can be considered spoilers, but Allison seemed to know her Big Brother trivia more than the others). In fact, based on what people are saying on Twitter, Allison is somewhat of a superfan. This season could certainly use another knowledgeable game player, and I think Allison can deliver on that, as well as being witty in the diary room. She may even have a chance of beating Scott, as she's being endorsed by lots of former players, and seems to have a lot of support on Twitter. Vote for Allison!

That's all for this week. The show may technically have started, but I feel like this week will be the true beginning, when we really get to see the house dynamics. I can't wait to really analyse the strategic games of the players, and hopefully by next week I'll be able to do that. See you then!

On Thin Brice

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyse everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Brice became the beauty tribe's first casualty this week on Survivor. 

First of all, kudos to me for recognizing that Jeremiah may not have been as interested in aligning with Brice and Morgan as it appeared last week. I correctly identified Brice as a player that was still in trouble on Solana (although I thought it would be Morgan getting the boot, not him). Also, thank goodness Alexis stuck around. The performances of my fake-pool picks have embarrassing so far, and her elimination would have made it that much worse.

It ended up being Jeremiah's decision who to send home. Did he make the right one? I think yes. The one advantage to siding with Brice and Morgan is that he'd be at least number three in the alliance, while with the others he could be number four. But the Beauty Tribe probably won't be losing so many challenges that Jeremiah will be voted out, even if he is number four. Sticking with the larger group will give him more numbers going into a merge or tribe swap, and he also keeps a good challenge competitor and perhaps bigger target, LJ, in the game.

Where does the Beauty Tribe go from here? It seems fairly clear that Morgan will be the next one out, unless she can pull off something spectacular. My suspicion that Alexis and LJ were quite close was confirmed by Brice in one of his secret scenes. When Jeremiah and Jefra were talking alone, right before Alexis joined them, Jeremiah asked if the two of them were "still good", implying that she and him had something more with each other than with the rest of the alliance. And with Jeremiah and LJ's bromance and Alexis and Jefra being good friends, this alliance of four seems like they'll be staying true to each other at least for the near future. Should Solana lose the next challenge, I'm once again predicting that Morgan will be the one to go.

They may not need to worry about losing the next challenge though, if the preview's for next week are accurate. The Aparri tribe may throw the next immunity challenge to take out one of their members. This is really peculiar. In Sarah's secret scene this week, she talks about how her tribe can win every challenge and should stick together until the final six. So what caused her to change her mind so drastically that she now is telling Woo that they should throw the challenge? There are only two possibilities for who she is talking about that she wants to vote out: Cliff or Tony (She says "him" and obviously she's not talking about Woo since he's the one she was talking to). 

Sarah's alliance with Tony, and the fact that she trusts him so much, would lead one to believe that she's talking about voting out Cliff, but there are two things that give me doubt about that. First, Woo is Cliff's closest alliance. He would be the last person she'd talk to about voting Cliff out. And second, Tony has been trying to turn her against Cliff. I'm assuming that her secret scene was filmed after Tony lied to her about Cliff targeting her, and in that secret scene she had no desire to vote off anyone on her tribe. So what would cause the sudden change of heart? I can't see Cliff doing anything to turn her against him. So, I think she caught Tony in one of his lies. She compared notes with Cliff or Lindsey, realized Tony had been playing her, and felt extremely betrayed. She would be angry that Tony would deceive her, despite their cop connection. That might be enough to have her wanting to throw a challenge to get rid of him.

The Brains tribe winning immunity this week was my happiest moment so far this season. Unfortunately, it still looks like Spencer will be in a lot of trouble if they lose another challenge. I really want Spencer and the rest of Luzon to survive to the tribe swap, so here's hoping Brawn does indeed throw the challenge. If they do lose, though, Spencer will try to pull off something crazy. He said last night that he was going to have to get "creative" to stay in the game, and I can't wait to see what he tries if the Brains tribe loses again. I still would rather see them win again though. The tribe swap that will likely occur in two weeks is Spencer's best hope for survival.

I've had a fairly busy week this week, so I'll be ending this entry here even though it's a little on the short side. For all I know, you're a fan of short and sweet blog entries, dear reader. So you're welcome.

Big Brother Canada 2 Preview!

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Big Brother in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, interviews with eliminated players, side show, and occasionally the live feeds to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Reading through the recently released cast list for Big Brother Canada's second season, I was not very optimistic. The whole time I was like "Okay, when are we going to get to the people who actually have a chance to win?" ... And I'm still wondering that. With any luck, this mysterious final Houseguest will be some sort of superfan, although that seems unlikely.

I'm really excited to do this preview though, because I think I'm going to get really mean! All I have to go off are each houseguest's written bios, which is probably part of the reason that none of them seem great. But it makes it more fun for doing a preview blog, because I get to assume that their entire being is portrayed in their answers to a few short questions, and completely pick them apart because of it!

However, I don't like being extremely negative, so I'm going to try to come up with one positive thing to say about each contestant! (Key word: try. I can't make any promises)

Plus, I'll make a winner prediction at the end! Which will be really easy, because there are so few of them that show any potential whatsoever! (I reserve the right to change this prediction after finding out who the final houseguest is, as there's a good chance I'll find that person better than all of the rest)

Okey dokey, here we go!

Adel Elseri

First things first: Get ready for a whole bunch of first names you've never heard before. There are a lot of them in this cast.

First problem with Adel is his answer when asked who he'd rather take to the final 2: Gary or Peter? He says Peter because he knows he can beat him in any challenge... Umm, he knows that there aren't any challenges in the final 2, right? That might put a wrench in his plans.

He says that what he'll miss most while in the house is the girl he wants to marry. I'm a little confused by the wording. He doesn't say fiance or girlfriend, which could just be a coincidence but kinda makes me think this is just some random girl he's creeping on.

He goes on to say that he's scared of mental challenges because he CAN'T SPELL OR READ. I really hope that's an exaggeration. Especially since his occupation is an inventor. You'd think that would require a little bit of intelligence.

He also says he's aggressive, which is great if that mean's he's going to put his all into the game, and not give up, but very bad if it means he's going to go out Willie Hantz style.

The positive: He does seem to have a good personality/sense of humour, so he may be a good social player as long as that agressiveness isn't too prominent. He'll also be a force to be reckoned with in physical challenges (although, let's face it, it's rare for a big brother challenge to get very physical).

Andrew Gordon

Giant red flag right off the bat is that Andrew has only watched one season of Big Brother before (Canada's first season). While he could still do very well, he may not have the game knowledge to really ever be in control of his fate.

And... there's actually nothing genuinely bad about the rest of his bio. It's not amazing, but it's not bad.

The positive: He's very confident, which is a plus as long as it doesn't get too out of hand. He has a good plan of how to approach the game strategy wise: Focus on being likeable at first, and worry about making big moves and power plays later.

Oh, wait. He says he's gonna miss beer. That's not good for his likeability, in my opinion. It's hard to get a gauge of his personality from his bio, but going off things like that, he may have a hard time making friends with anyone other than the other jerks. But we'll see, maybe he's not so bad.

                                                              

Anick Gervais

Anick's occupation is a... Reiki master? Umm... I'm fairly sure she just made that up. (More likely, I just don't have a lot of common knowledge, but whatever)

She would take Peter to the finals over Gary, because she could beat him athletically and mentally... maybe these people answered this question taking into consideration the weeks leading up to the final 2. In any case, Peter is the wrong answer. Although if she's as smart as she seems to think she is, she maybe could pull it off.

Okay, reading through this again, these people may not be as bad as I initially thought. A lot of positives here:

Dr.Will is her idol. That's a great choice, and suggests that she's seen her fair share of big brother.

She says she's not normal; anyone who can admit they're weird is amazing!

And she's got the right idea about strategy: it depends on the variables in the house. You can't have a solid strategy before you even know who you're playing with, so this is a good answer. She goes on to say she's going to... let destiny decide her fate, meditate and let the universe tell her what to do?

I take back what I said before. This is bad. Very bad.

Mean people get on her nerves... based on this cast she may not be very happy in the house.

On the other hand, she gets on the nerves of negative people, and this cast is super confident and positive so at least she won't be getting on their nerves.

She ends by describing herself as a butterfly ready to break out of her cocoon. How beautiful.

                                                                  

Arlie Shaban

Arlie's occupation is... big brother houseguest? Okay.

Besides that, his bio is actually pretty good. He comes off a little arrogant, but hopefully that won't show in his actual encounters. Arlie is one of the two people here who I actually think has a good shot at this.

He's a superfan, and he chose Dr. Will and Dan Gheesling as his idols. He's ready to lie and actually play the game, and he's extremely confident about his chances in the competitions (at least the ones he doesn't throw).

Really the only thing that could hold him back is if this overconfidence and arrogance shows to the other houseguests, or if he plays too hard and gets caught in his lies. Overall though, things are looking up for Arlie. Cool name, too.

                                                               

Heather Decksheimer

Heather idolizes Rachel Reilly. I've never seen Rachel play, unfortunately, but from what I've heard her game was all physical: She was great at the competitions. That tells me that Heather will be predominantly focused on the competition side of the game rather than the strategy.

She would take Gary to the final 2 because he was more fun and loyal than Peter... again, am I the only one who took this question as "you're at the final three with Gary and Peter, and you've won final HoH. Who do you take to the final 2?"? Because at that point it shouldn't matter how fun or loyal someone is.

She fears challenges with multiplying and dividing, which sounds pathetic to me but I guess would be pretty reasonable to the general public.

The positives: She claims that she will play dumb, but is actually very smart, which, if true, is great. She also says she doesn't really feel emotions, which would be a useful trait in a game where it's usually best to play with your head rather than your heart. Plus she seems to have seen at least a few seasons of big brother.

                                                                

Ika Wong

One of Ika's three words to describe herself is "extra". Have you ever heard someone say "I'm extra!" before? What does that even mean!?

SHE ACTUALLY ANSWERS THE PETER GARY QUESTION FROM A STRATEGIC POINT OF VIEW!!! That's so exciting. She even picked Gary, which is the right answer!

She has two strategies going into the house, and she'll decide which one to use once she's there. That flexibility is good, but one of her strategies sucks (to only ever talk game with one or two people), so let's hope she goes with the other one.

She finds it hard to keep her feelings to herself; If she doesn't like someone, they're going to know it. If she can't keep that in control, she could be in big trouble.

Besides that, there are a lot of good things in her bio. She idolizes Dr. Will and Rachel, and references Danielle Reyes at one point, which tells me she's watched a lot of big brother.

                                                                

Jon Pardy

He only started watching big brother halfway BBUS season 14, so he hasn't seen a ton of the show.

He says that he'd take Gary to the final 2 because both Gary and Peter would be tough to beat but Gary would be more fun to have around. This is just code for "I don't wanna put much thought into the strategic aspect of this, so I'm not going to." 

He says he'll miss his dog the most. Now, I love dogs as much as any other, but this seems a little much. You're really going to miss your dog more than your family and friends? This tells me that Jon doesn't actually have any solid relationships in life. Thus, I don't expect him to be making many friends in the house.

The positive: He seems interested in the manipulation side of the game. If he can do that effectively, he could be a player to watch.

                                                                   

Kenny Brain

First of all, his last name is Brain. That's pretty great.

He says he'd take Peter to the end over Gary because Peter's game wasn't as good, which makes zero sense, and tells me that he really doesn't know what the game's all about.

The thing he'll miss most is... his dog!? Again!? He says that this will be the longest they've ever been apart, and will hopefully be the longest they're apart for the rest of Kenny's life.  ...  ... Umm, Kenny? That's not going to happen. Hate to break it to you, but dogs actually DON'T have as long a life span as humans... I know, hard to believe... I'll just move on while you digest that little tidbit.

Tim Horton's commercials make him cry... that's just a little ridiculous.

His pet peeve is messy people. Jon Pardy described himself as "untidy". I see a conflict between the two.

The positive: He claims he's smart, his idol is Britney Haynes (BB12) which tells me he's watched more than one season of big brother, and his initial strategy of starting slow, making friends, and throwing challenges is a good one.

                                                             

Kyle Shore

One of Kyle's occupations is "picking up the girls downtown" and one of his three words to describe himself in "jacked." I already hate this guy.

This is his answer for who he'd take to the final 2, Peter or Gary: "Gary for sure! He was dead honest and played himself the whole time. Peter I'd probably eat him for breakfast. I'm always hungry though. I'm 225 lb."   ... I don't think I need to comment further on that.

He doesn't like people who lie. He's also about to start playing a game where you'll need to lie to win. *Sigh*

The positive: He at least admits that he's stupid. He says "people will mistake my stupidity for strategy" which really isn't a good thing because if people think he's playing strategically, they'll target him even more. Here's hoping they do.

                                                                  

Neda Kalantar

Neda is the second person who I think has a good shot to win it all. She's a big brother superfan; She watches BBUS, BBAU, BBUK, and BBCAN. She says Britney is her idol but admits that she wasn't a great player. She asnswers the Peter/Gary question perfectly (she chooses Gary, for strategic reasons, and then changes to Peter so Gary won't hate her. But she got the message through... her real answer was the first one. It's actually pretty great what she did: made a strategic decision, and then found a way to soften the blow for the person she was essentially "voting against")

She will be throwing competitons and making as many personal connections with others as possible, which are both good things.

Like Arlie's arrogance, Neda has one thing that could be her Achilles heel: She's blunt. Hopefully she can restrain herself from always telling others when they do something that bothers her. If so, she can definitely win the game.

                                                            

Paul Jackson

Paul is a lot older than most of the other contestants, which will be a big obstacle to overcome in his social game.

Oh my. I just discovered that there ARE "meet the contestant" videos. Oh well. Too late to factor those in now.

Anyways, Paul decides that Gary was more well-liked than Peter, and therefore he should take Peter to the final 2. He is wrong.

He's the only person so far I think who said he was more worried about the brawn challenges than the brain ones. That's refreshing. 

His strategy is to build a relationship with the audience. This is actually a great point considering how much influence Canada had on the game last year.

His idols are Chilltown... nothing else really special about his bio. Overall he'll probably do well but I see the age gap getting between him and the final 2. 

                                                             

Rachelle Diamond

Rachelle's idol is Rachel, obviously. Her reason is because she was good at the competitions, which again makes me feel like Rachelle will not be focused on the strategic side of things.

She really seems to love Peter Brown, which is nice. But her decision to pick him over Gary had nothing to do with strategy, which is not nice.

She also says she'll have a tougher time with Brawn than Brain, which makes sense. She doesn't exactly look like a physical powerhouse.

She says she'll need to tone herself down in the house. She can be really loud and confrontational. She then says that she and her friends think she would be perfect for the show, so either she's actually not loud and confrontational, or she and her friends don't understand the show. I'd bet on the latter.

The positive: She could be entertaining? Good TV? I think she won't be a big factor game-wise.

                                                               

Sabrina Abbate

Like most of the others, Sabrina makes her Peter/Gary decision based on who she likes better, not who would be easier to beat.

And once again, the thing she'll miss most are her dogs. Wow. Okay. I will admit that "dogs" is a better answer than "beer". Anyways, moving on...

She says that she's the devil when she's hungry, so don't put her on slop. The chances that she's never on slop are pretty slim. So at some point she's going to turn into the devil, which will be great for us viewers but very un-great for her game.

Finally, she says she's obsessed with the show. Awesome. She says she can see every twist coming. Impressive. She says she predicts who the winner will be after one episode, and 90% of the time she's right... which pretty much means she's not actually obsessed and she can't see the twists coming because this is all clearly exaggerated.

If by some miracle she isn't exaggerating, then that is seriously impressive.

The positive: She seems to have a really fun personality and could have a great social game.

                                                                      

Sarah Miller

Sarah wrongly thinks Peter would be easier to beat than Gary. I'm tired of that.

She refers to her husband and daughter as her "most prized possessions" which is just a little unnerving.

She's fairly confident for the challenges (as is almost everyone. With only a couple exceptions, people are either planning on throwing competitions or will without a doubt win every single one!)

She doesn't like mean people and bullies, so maybe her and Anick will bond over how much they hate all the guys in the house.

The positive: She has the good initial strategy of simply being likeable and waiting until she's in the house to flesh out a more solid strategy

And now for the moment you've all been waiting for! Who will I pick to win the game? Like you've probably guessed, it's between Arlie and Neda. Both are superfans who will know how to play the game, but both have a fatal flaw: Arlie's arrogance and Neda's bluntness. My decision is based on who I think will be able to overcome their flaw, and who will be seen as less of a target. 

Without further ado, my prediction to win Big Brother Canada 2 is...

Neda Kalantar!

Congratulations Neda. You should be honoured.

And once again, the final houseguest may take that spot depending on who he/she is.

One last prediction before I go. I see a brolliance forming in the early stages of the game, as so often happens on Big Brother. I think Kyle, Jon, Andrew, and Adel will form an alliance early on, maybe win the first couple HoHs, and then fall apart miserably.

I plan on posting one BBCAN blog per week, based on everything that has happened up to the latest eviction, so there's no need to worry about live feed spoilers (assuming I ever watch the live feeds). Thanks for reading! 

Lose on, Luzon

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Let's just take a moment to look at where we're at after this premiere of Survivor Cagayan:

J'Tia annoyed her tribe, forced them to waste time building a worthless shelter, lagged behind in both the physical and mental portions of the immunity challenge, poured all of her tribe's rice in the fire, and dumped water on the fire. And she's still in the game.

Garrett put 2000 hours into preparing for the show, was the strongest person on his tribe, found the hidden immunity idol within minutes of starting the game, and convinced the tribe to do his bidding in the first tribal council. And he's been voted out.

The Luzon tribe is absolutely crazy. As most of them have come to realize themselves, they really don't live up to their label as brains.

David made a blunder minutes into the game by making Garrett his enemy and declaring him the weakest on their tribe. Choosing Garrett may have been a good move, if he'd had the right reason for it. If he had chosen Garrett and said, "I'm choosing him because he clearly isn't the weakest on our tribe, so I know he won't be offended by this," then Garrett probably would have understood. But David's reason was pretty much that he actually wanted Garrett out of the game. That mistake made David the first boot.

Garrett similarly made a mistake that cost him the game: The open-forum discussion. It's always a bad idea to let the person you're voting out know that you're voting them out. Garrett did this, but in that sense it actually worked out well for him, because it caused J'Tia to go crazy and make herself an even bigger target. I think it was just the fact that Garrett wasn't letting the others play their own game that turned them against him. Even when he revealed his alliance with Kass and Spencer at tribal council, I could understand why he was doing it. That would solidify to Kass that his real loyalties' lied with her, not with Tasha. But then he retracted what he said and started talking about the four and just dug himself into a hole.

J'Tia's mistakes were plenty and obvious. To think that I had thought of her as one of the most likely to win... I couldn't have been further from the truth. Unless she changes drastically in the second half of the game, she doesn't have a chance.

I liked Kass, Tasha, and Spencer in the episode, but even this group was making mistakes.

Tasha's biggest fault was admitting to her tribe how much she wanted to strategize. The goal in Suvivor is to play the strategic game without the others knowing that you're playing the strategic game, and Tasha pretty much told her tribe that she would be working behind some of their backs, lying to some of them. Not very smart.

Kass made her first mistake when she told J'Tia she would be voting for her. While I don't think that had anything to do with the fact that she ended up surviving the tribal council (Garrett would have pushed his agenda regardless), it's still something that shouldn't be done. Her second mistake was voting out Garrett. If she had kept Garrett, the Luzon tribe would have a great chance of starting to win some challenges. Even if they did lose one, Tasha would be voted out, not her. By eliminating Garrett, it will be very hard for the remaining Brains to start winning challenges. Tasha and J'Tia appear to be a pair, and if they decide they want to keep Spencer for the little brawn he brings to the tribe, Kass could find herself out next.

Spencer was the only Brain who actually played well. Just like I predicted, his arrogance in the pre-game interviews and confessionals did not appear during camp life. He laid low while also being a part of the strategy and decision making. He's found himself on the bottom of his tribe, but that's only because of how crazy his tribemates are playing. And I'm not so sure he's really on the bottom...

Kass must have had some good reason to vote out Garrett. She didn't like J'Tia, and Spencer said that she fought with Tasha in the first tribal council. So why would she side with J'Tia and Tasha? One of the scenes where she and Tasha are strategizing at the water's edge opens with Tasha saying something like "She'll be out next, I promise! This is our last chance to have the numbers!" The "she" Tasha is referring to must be J'Tia. I'm assuming what she's saying is that if Kass joins them to vote out Garrett now, they'll vote out J'Tia next. This would be appealing to Kass because at that point, she'd essentially get to choose between Spencer and Tasha should they lose a fourth challenge. She'd be in a power position. I think that's why she voted out Garrett. The only question is if Tasha was telling the truth; would she really vote out her closest ally J'Tia? If the Brains tribe loses again next week, which they unfortunately likely will, we'll find out. Kass and Spencer will want to vote out J'Tia, but if Tasha doesn't we could even end up with a fire making challenge (which I would expect J'Tia to lose).

The other factor on the Brains tribe is the hidden immunity idol. Garrett left it buried "near treemail" at camp. So will there be clues leading to its new location now? I hope so. Although the chances of the Brains tribe actually winning a clue are pretty slim. I really hope they do though. They may be the oddest tribe in history, but that's exactly why I'm still rooting for them.

Now onto the other tribes... let's start with Brawn. Right now it appears to be Tony and Trish on one side and everyone else on the other side united by their love for Cliff. But if Trish is accurate in saying that Lindsey isn't doing any work, that could be getting on the nerves of the other Aparri members too. And especially with Tony admitting to Sarah that he's a cop in the next episode, I think that Lindsey is set to be the first person voted out of Aparri, assuming they ever lose a challenge. I don't think they will lose many challenges throughout the season, so the other 5 may stay together, with Sarah, Tony, and Trish being the core three.

On the Beauty Tribe, we have the three pairs: Alexis and Jefra, LJ and Jeremiah, and Morgan and Brice. Brice tried to get Jeremiah on his side but Jeremiah didn't say much, besides how Jefra and Alexis are getting on his nerves, so I don't know that he's really with them. We never actually saw them make an agreement. I think his loyalties lie with LJ, and LJ will want to target Morgan and Brice for a couple reasons. One, he already suspects that Morgan has an idol or idol clue. And second, he seems to be close with Alexis. They were seen playing coconut bowling together and Alexis was the first to hug him after he won the second immunity challenge. Granted, that's not a lot to go off of, but I've just gotten some feeling that the two have some sort of bond. I wouldn't be surprised if an Alexis, LJ, Jeremiah, Jefra alliance already exists, and we just don't know about it. Regardless, I see the Beauty tribe less as three pairs and more as one chain: Jefra gets along with Alexis, who is close with LJ, who is bros with Jeremiah, who is attracted to Morgan, who is friends with Brice. Logically, the people in most danger would be those with the fewest connections: The two people on the ends of the chain, Jefra and Brice. I'd say Morgan is in just as much danger though, because LJ is suspicious of her and she probably isn't as good in the challenges as Brice. Plus, her connection with Jeremiah is likely to be overpowered by LJ's connection with Jeremiah. Morgan had a good episode, convincing almost everyone with her idol cover-up, but I still don't think she'll be around much longer. She's still my pick to get voted out if Beauty loses.

Some final thoughts about the premiere:

I loved when Garrett got scared by the spider. It was hilarious, but I don't fault him for it. I can totally relate.

Did anyone else notice Alexis' facial expressions while LJ was doing the puzzle in the second immunity challenge? They were perfect.

I don't understand Tony's spy shack at all. It looks like he's just standing outside the shelter listening. How is that a shack!?

I know that the brains tribe won't be completely starved without their rice. What was with those giant red and yellow fruit they were eating? It looked delicious, but it was also super crunchy...

It's probably a good thing that the Survivor pool isn't actually happening. Garrett would have picked up some points for finding the idol, but it's still not good that he was voted out second. And J'Tia and Spencer could both be out in the next couple of weeks. And they were my easy picks! Sarah's doing great though. She really could be a triple threat in this game: physical, social, and strategic, plus she's entertaining. And Alexis could still make it far. Overall though, my pool hopes would have plummeted after this first episode.

And that's all! What did you think about the premiere? Feel free to speak your mind in the comments! I'll be eagerly awaiting next week's episode; It looks like this will be a great season!

Survivor Cagayan Cast Preview!

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

We're only a week away from the start of Survivor's next season and my excitement levels are high. The cast has been out for quite some time now, and it's looking like a good one. There are plenty of players who actually seem like they are big fans of the show, and while I really love the brains tribe, there are some interesting players on the other tribes too who could have just as much game-playing ability as the smartest of the brains.

For the past couple years, I've joined a Survivor pool in which you pick 5 players before the season starts, and they earn you points based on how long they last, how many tribal and individual challenges they win, and how many hidden idols they find. So I came up with this great idea to base my preview blog on my thought process for choosing these players, only to learn that the pool wasn't happening this season... 

So I'm just going to pretend that it is. Following are my thoughts on each player, and the five I would have picked had there been a pool this season. Those five aren't necessarily the people I think will make the final 5 (that would be much too hard to predict), but they are the five I think have the best chances of going very deep into the game. 

Now, when the cast videos were first released, I gave each contestant a rating from 1 to 5 based on their bio, and another ranking from 1 to 5 based on their video. Unfortunately, I don't have those ratings with me currently and won't have them until a couple days before the show starts, and by that time I'll be studying for midterms and won't want to write a giant preview blog, so we'll have to make do without the ratings. It's not much of a loss anyways, because those ratings would have changed a lot after seeing all that I have since originally rating the players.

Anyways, without further ado, let us begin!

Aparri (Brawn) Tribe

Cliff is a former NBA player, and this immediately raised red flags with me. The problem with any sort of "celebrity" player is that the million dollar prize isn't much of an incentive for them, which means they have one less reason to try to win the game. If the survival aspect of the game-- the weather, lack of food and comfort, etc.-- gets tough, most players would endure because they are driven by their desire for money, but this won't apply to Cliff. He's a giant, which means the lack of food will be especially hard on him, and the only reason he would have to stay in the game would be to win the title of Sole Survivor, which may not be so important for him once he's actually out there, trying to weather the elements. While I don't see him quitting the game, I also don't see him trying very hard to stay in the game once he's targeted. And he will be targeted, simply because he appears to be very intimidating as a physical competitor. At best, I see Cliff being one of the first members of the jury. At worst, he could be the first one out of his tribe, especially if his former career is made public.

You only need to take one look at Lindsey to see that she will start this game as the odd one out. Based on her bio, I was convinced that she would be the first out of the Aparri tribe. However, after watching her video I felt a little better about her. She has a good sense of humour, so if she has enough time to build some solid relationships before her tribe goes to their first Tribal Council, she has a chance to survive, and make it deep into the game. However, she doesn't seem to have much game-knowledge, so while I can see her possibly being taken to the end as a goat, I don't think she will have any real control over the game or any chance to actually win.

After watching Sarah's videos and reading her bio, Sarah was one of my favourites on the Brawn tribe. I can't remember if she had the highest rating on the tribe, but I wouldn't be surprised if she did. However, I still wasn't really considering her as a pick for the pool. The best thing she had going for her was that she had identified Tony as a fellow cop, and she said she planned on having one person she could really trust and then building her alliance outward. If she and Tony did team up, they could be a powerful duo and probably at least make the merge together, unless the entire rest of the Aparri tribe voted against them. Despite this, it wasn't until Rob Cesternino and his wife Nicole both wanted to pick Sarah to win on the RHAP preview podcast that I really started to consider Sarah as a potential pool pick. And, since then, two of the Rob has a Podcast bloggers have picked her too. Jeff Probst also had good things to say about her in the cast assessment. It seems almost everyone likes Sarah's chances, and they have me convinced. Sarah has what it takes to win: She knows the game, is likable, and doesn't seem like she'll be overeager to make moves and overplay, which would not be good. Plus, if she has an alliance with Tony, he will surely be the bigger target of the two, which gives her a little bit of insurance should things start going south for the pair.

Tony has OK chances, thanks to his possible alliance with Sarah. He seems to have reasonable knowledge of the game. But, unlike Sarah, he probably won't be as likable-- I can see him being much too bossy for the other players' tastes-- and he is definitely the type who will play too hard, too fast. If Sarah can't hold him back, he could screw both of them by making impulsive game moves early on. He says he wants to be like Russell Hantz, so you can bet he'll be putting a target on his back by looking for an idol right off the bat. Tony could probably make the merge pretty easily, but after that his gameplay will start to catch up to him and he'll be a very big target. I can't see him playing as well strategically as Russell Hantz, so I think he'll be voted out long before the finals. And even if he somehow made finals, he likely won't have many friends on the jury and it would be tough for him to win the game.

Trish reminds me a lot of Survivor Caramoan's Sherri. I definitely think she can make it far in the game, but I'm not sure that she will be in the driver's seat at any point. She seems to be very likable, which is great for her chances of making it far, but also makes her a threat when it gets close to the final three. If she does manage to make strategic decisions throughout the game, she may make enough people angry that she won't be viewed as a likeability threat, which may be the best case scenario for her in the endgame. I can see Trish winning, but she would have to play the game mostly with her head rather than her heart, and I'm not sure that she can do that.

Lots of people have compared Woo to Fabio, and I can see where they're coming from. Woo seems to be very interested in having an adventure, and not so interested in playing the game of Survivor. Woo will not be making any strategic decisions this season, and I think he'll be a bit of a non-factor. Perhaps comparable to Philippines' Carter. His likeability and challenge strength can take him well into the merge, but unless he wins all of the immunity's at the end, I don't think Woo makes the final three.

Luzon (Brains) Tribe

I don't like David's chances for the same reason I don't like Cliffs chances. He's the president of the Miami Marlins, so the money isn't going to be a big deal for him. That being said, I don't see the elements being as hard on him as they are on Cliff. He's the oldest of the Brains tribe and is used to being a leader, so it seems that he is destined to take on the leadership role on this tribe, which is a precarious position in Survivor. If he is too bossy, the tribe could vote him out first. But, I think the tribe will be more worried about removing the weakest links challenge-wise, and that could give David the chance he needs to get himself into a strong alliance. As long as his occupation remains a secret, his chances actually aren't so bad. If Garrett is part of his alliance, Garrett will be the bigger target come merge time. I can actually see David making it to the end, and winning. But this is only if he can overcome his label as a leader that he will inevitably get at the beginning of the game. I'm cheering against David if only because I like the rest of the Brains tribe too much, so I'm just gonna go ahead and say he doesn't make the merge. He may survive one Tribal, but if the Brains go to Tribal Council again, it's not a stretch to say they could  vote out their leader. I also get the sense that they;ll be annoyed by him, but I'm not sure where that's coming from, because I actually found him quite funny in his video.

I actually remember the rating I gave Garrett during my initial cast assessment: 9.5. Garrett has a whole lot going for him. He's clearly the most physically fit on his tribe. He's a Survivor superfan. He's a pro-poker player, which should mean he's good at reading people and lying and all that pokery stuff that I know nothing about. He says he put 2000 hours of preparation into this, which is just insane. I think his challenge strength will get him through the early game, but after that he will have a giant bullseye on his back. He'll have to keep other big targets in the game to give himself a chance. I can see him starting the game in a Brains alliance, but I don't think him and Spencer can work together for the entire game. I see a power struggle between him and Spencer, with Spencer likely coming out on top simply because Garrett is clearly the more intimidating player. However, I'm not ruling Garrett out. He's easily one of the biggest Survivor fans on the season, and he won't be going down without a fight. Even if he doesn't make it to the end, he'll probably win some individual challenges, which translates into points in the non-existent Survivor pool. Garrett won't have an easy time with it, but he is definitely capable of winning the game.

I would be surprised if J'Tia didn't at least make the final 7. She's a big fan of Survivor, she's smart, she's competitive, she's likeable, and she doesn't appear very threatening. Plus she's an engineer, which gives her major bonus points. J'Tia should have no problem getting herself into an alliance in the beginning. I can't see her being much of a target until the endgame. Like Sarah, everyone seems to love her chances, and unlike with Sarah, I had come to the same conclusion on my own. I think she has a great chance of winning the whole thing. The one thing she has to watch out for are her fellow Brains-- she can't underestimate them. Many of them know the game just as well or more than she does. If she can anticipate and prepare for the moves that they will want to make, then she should have no problem getting to the end.

Kass was one of my favourites based on her bio and video. I like her slightly less now because she's really annoying on Twitter, but I'd still like to see her make it far in the game. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem very likely. Kass seems to have a personality that the others will either love or hate. She appears to be the physically weakest on the Brains tribe, so unless she can get herself into an alliance early on, she could very likely be the first boot from her tribe. She does have some things going for her, though: She's a big fan of the game and will appear very non-threatening. If she can make it past the first couple tribal councils, she will have a great chance of going all the way. But to survive the first days, she'll have to just lay back and go along with her tribe. She appears to be very argumentative, and if she's disagreeing with the rest of her tribe in the beginning, she will be the first Luzon member voted out. It's worth noting that she has this big Twitter feud going on with Tony. They hate each other, which makes me think that they've spent some time together. That would either mean they both made the merge, or they both were voted out early and went on the same pre-merge-boots-trip together. Since I'm expecting Tony to make the merge, that gives me hope that Kass will, too.

Some people think Spencer will be the first out, others think he'll make it far, but everyone seems to agree on one thing: He can't win. Well, everyone except me. I think that if Spencer makes the final 3, he wins the game. I'm not positive that he'll make the final 3-- I can see him having a game similar to Malcolm's in the Philippines: He gets to the final five or four and then messes up and gets voted out. But I definitely think he'll be around for a long time. While he does come off a little arrogant in his videos, I think he's smart enough and able enough to keep that in check during the game. As a fellow guy who thinks he's the smartest person ever, I can relate to Spencer. If he's anything like me, he won't be anything like that around his tribemates, unless he gets to a point with them that he considers them close enough friends and knows they won't hold it against him if acts a little arrogant. I think he will actually be in a similar position as J'Tia: He's a superfan, will probably be likeable, and doesn't appear threatening. The fact that he may not be as likeable as J'Tia can actually increase his chances, as people will be okay with going to the end with him. Like with J'Tia, I'll be shocked if he doesn't at least make final 7. Also, there's a good chance that he's the first RHAP listener to play Survivor, which is a good thing for him.

Tasha has everything going for her that Spencer and J'tia do with the exception of one thing-- Brains. I'm sure she's a pretty smart woman, but nothing about her screams Brains tribe, and she doesn't appear to be as much of a Survivor fan as them. She's likeable, and strong enough to avoid being voted out as a weak-link but no so strong to be seen as a big threat after the merge. So I can see her going very far-- even all the way to the final three. But I don't think she'll have any control over her fate and I don't think she'll win the game. She simply doesn't have the Survivor know-how to play on the same level as her Brains tribemates.

Solana (Beauty) Tribe

Many people have been calling Alexis the black horse going into this season, and that's the exact same feeling I got about her too. After reading her bio, I felt that she would be a really good player. But then her video was a bit of a disappointment. I can see her being one of the first boots, or I could see her being great. She said that she considers herself more of a brain than a brawn or beauty, so I have to assume she has some intelligence. She doesn't seem like a Survivor superfan, but she says her dad loves the show so I assume she's watched a lot of it with him growing up, so she should have a decent game understanding. And she's a psychology student, which is a definite plus. The game is all about psychology, so she should have an advantage in that sense. If the beauty tribe loses a lot of challenges, though, she could easily be gone early. Her best chance would be to team up with the other girls and take a couple of the guys out. Even if she doesn't, though, I see her at least surviving the first Tribal Council, because I don't see Morgan being very like by her tribe. I think Alexis has a chance to win. But I also think she has a good chance of placing in pretty much any other position. So I don't really have a good prediction for her.



Brice sticks out like a sore thumb, which could make him an easy first target for the Beauty tribe. His best bet seems to be to team up with the girls, but that would leave Jeremiah and LJ on the outs and I don't know that the girls will be comfortable voting out their two strongest men, so my hopes aren't high that that alliance will actually happen. That doesn't mean there's no hope for Brice, though. There are lots of ways this Beauty tribe can unfold. Maybe Morgan gets on the tribes nerves and becomes the first target. A couple could emerge and put a target on their own backs. Brice has a loud personality, so it'll be hard for him to stay under the radar. He'll have a target on his back the whole game, but that's exactly why I can see him winning over a jury if he makes the final 3. I just don't think he'll have the social game to make it that far.



I think I wrote off Jefra right away when I read her bio, because I considered her to be the token recruited pageant girl who would have no chance of actually winning the game. That was my bad. I must've just skimmed over her bio or something because I somehow missed the fact that even though she's just 23, she's already gone through a lot. She's a cancer survivor, and she overcame addiction. She's also an outdoors girl, so the elements shouldn't be as hard on her as they might be on her female tribesmates. She seems extremely likeable, and will probably be better in physical challenges than the other girls on her tribe, so she shouldn't be an early target. If the Beauty tribe goes on a losing streak, which they easily could, that's when she could have a tough time staying in the game. Also, if she develops a romance with fellow southerner Jeremiah (which seems likely considering the two can already be seen together in some footage (I think)) than she could find herself being one of the first to go. Her tribe could try to break up the couple and they'd definitely vote her out over Jeremiah. If Jefra can get to the merge, though, she has a good chance of making it very far, and I can see her winning.



Jeremiah compares himself to J.T., and I would agree with that. I thought the same thing as soon as I saw his video. However, I'm not sure that Jeremiah can do as well as J.T. did in the game. He doesn't seem to have a very good understanding of the strategic game. He will probably be very well-liked, but that alone can only take him so far, especially when he'll be seen as an individual challenge threat. I think he'll make the merge, as long as that Brice and the girls alliance doesn't happen, but I don't think he'll make it much farther than that. I definitely don't see Jeremiah winning this game.



Like David on the Brains tribe, LJ seems destined to take the leadership role on Solana. This may not be such a bad thing for LJ though. He seems like he'll be very calm and level-headed, patient with his tribe and liked by them. He is well-suited for the leadership role, and is capable of building trust with his tribe by being the leader. I think the Beauty tribe will respect his decisions and appreciate him as a leader, and he should stick around at least until the merge. My one worry for him in the early game is that we already know he will be doing the puzzle portion of the first immunity challenge rather than the physical portion, and if his tribe loses that challenge they may be upset with him for not doing the physical work. I really don't think that will be enough for them to vote him out though. He doesn't talk a lot about the strategic game, so I'm worried about how he'll fare after the merge when he'll be a big target, but if he can make it to the end he can surely win the game.



I can easily see Morgan being the first boot of Survivor Cagayan. She won't be an asset in challenges, and she doesn't seem likeable enough to build the relationships necessary to be a strategic force in the game. She may be dragged all the way to the end, but she won't win. She doesn't appear to be a Survivor fan. She thinks the others will do what she wants just because she's beautiful. I really can't see her game being good in any aspect-- not strategically, not physically, not even socially. More than anyone else on the cast, I am convinced that Morgan cannot win the game.

My Picks!

So, who from the cast would I pick in this theoretical Survivor pool? My first three choices were easy:

Garrett Adelstein- Garrett could be on any of the three tribes. I think he'll be a force to be reckoned with physically, strategically, and socially. He could very easily end up with the biggest target on his back of anyone in the game, but I think it would be foolish to bet against this superfan.

J'Tia Taylor- J'Tia seems very game-smart and likeable, but doesn't appear very threatening. In many ways this seems like her game to lose.

Spencer Bledsoe- Same as J'Tia, except a bigger fan of the show and potentially less likeable. I think Spencer will succeed in controlling his arrogance and go very far in the game. In the original Meet the Cast Video, Spencer is portrayed as the season's villain, which also makes me think that he'll be around for a long while.

I liked the Brains tribe so much, at first I wanted to choose all 5 from that tribe. But that wouldn't have been very smart as me...

Sarah Lacina- After everyone began to rave about how great Sarah was, I began to seriously consider her as a pick. It didn't take long to become convinced that she had a very good chance of going all the way. (It's worth noting that last season, I picked Rachel because Rob and Nicole Cesternino both picked her to win, and that didn't go well for me at all. Now I'm picking Sarah for pretty much the same reason...)

My last pick was the hardest. Did I want to pick another Brain? Tasha or Kass could both do very well. Or do I want a representative from the Beauty tribe? LJ and Alexis both struck me as potentially great players. Eventually I decided on....

Alexis Maxwell- It's always good to have one "secret weapon" on your pool team: Someone who not a lot of people will probably pick but who might do great in the game. In One World, Kat was my secret weapon. Dawson in Philippines and Tina in Blood vs. Water were also secret weapons. Sometimes it pays off to take a risk and pick them, sometimes it doesn't. But my initial gut reaction about Alexis was that she'd do very well, and so she's earned a spot in my Survivor pool team that doesn't actually exist.

And that's that. This blog entry is much too long already and I don't even think I'm that good at this pre-season prediction stuff. So sorry if this was really boring :s

Do you agree with my assessment? Express your thoughts in the comments!