Lose on, Luzon

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Let's just take a moment to look at where we're at after this premiere of Survivor Cagayan:

J'Tia annoyed her tribe, forced them to waste time building a worthless shelter, lagged behind in both the physical and mental portions of the immunity challenge, poured all of her tribe's rice in the fire, and dumped water on the fire. And she's still in the game.

Garrett put 2000 hours into preparing for the show, was the strongest person on his tribe, found the hidden immunity idol within minutes of starting the game, and convinced the tribe to do his bidding in the first tribal council. And he's been voted out.

The Luzon tribe is absolutely crazy. As most of them have come to realize themselves, they really don't live up to their label as brains.

David made a blunder minutes into the game by making Garrett his enemy and declaring him the weakest on their tribe. Choosing Garrett may have been a good move, if he'd had the right reason for it. If he had chosen Garrett and said, "I'm choosing him because he clearly isn't the weakest on our tribe, so I know he won't be offended by this," then Garrett probably would have understood. But David's reason was pretty much that he actually wanted Garrett out of the game. That mistake made David the first boot.

Garrett similarly made a mistake that cost him the game: The open-forum discussion. It's always a bad idea to let the person you're voting out know that you're voting them out. Garrett did this, but in that sense it actually worked out well for him, because it caused J'Tia to go crazy and make herself an even bigger target. I think it was just the fact that Garrett wasn't letting the others play their own game that turned them against him. Even when he revealed his alliance with Kass and Spencer at tribal council, I could understand why he was doing it. That would solidify to Kass that his real loyalties' lied with her, not with Tasha. But then he retracted what he said and started talking about the four and just dug himself into a hole.

J'Tia's mistakes were plenty and obvious. To think that I had thought of her as one of the most likely to win... I couldn't have been further from the truth. Unless she changes drastically in the second half of the game, she doesn't have a chance.

I liked Kass, Tasha, and Spencer in the episode, but even this group was making mistakes.

Tasha's biggest fault was admitting to her tribe how much she wanted to strategize. The goal in Suvivor is to play the strategic game without the others knowing that you're playing the strategic game, and Tasha pretty much told her tribe that she would be working behind some of their backs, lying to some of them. Not very smart.

Kass made her first mistake when she told J'Tia she would be voting for her. While I don't think that had anything to do with the fact that she ended up surviving the tribal council (Garrett would have pushed his agenda regardless), it's still something that shouldn't be done. Her second mistake was voting out Garrett. If she had kept Garrett, the Luzon tribe would have a great chance of starting to win some challenges. Even if they did lose one, Tasha would be voted out, not her. By eliminating Garrett, it will be very hard for the remaining Brains to start winning challenges. Tasha and J'Tia appear to be a pair, and if they decide they want to keep Spencer for the little brawn he brings to the tribe, Kass could find herself out next.

Spencer was the only Brain who actually played well. Just like I predicted, his arrogance in the pre-game interviews and confessionals did not appear during camp life. He laid low while also being a part of the strategy and decision making. He's found himself on the bottom of his tribe, but that's only because of how crazy his tribemates are playing. And I'm not so sure he's really on the bottom...

Kass must have had some good reason to vote out Garrett. She didn't like J'Tia, and Spencer said that she fought with Tasha in the first tribal council. So why would she side with J'Tia and Tasha? One of the scenes where she and Tasha are strategizing at the water's edge opens with Tasha saying something like "She'll be out next, I promise! This is our last chance to have the numbers!" The "she" Tasha is referring to must be J'Tia. I'm assuming what she's saying is that if Kass joins them to vote out Garrett now, they'll vote out J'Tia next. This would be appealing to Kass because at that point, she'd essentially get to choose between Spencer and Tasha should they lose a fourth challenge. She'd be in a power position. I think that's why she voted out Garrett. The only question is if Tasha was telling the truth; would she really vote out her closest ally J'Tia? If the Brains tribe loses again next week, which they unfortunately likely will, we'll find out. Kass and Spencer will want to vote out J'Tia, but if Tasha doesn't we could even end up with a fire making challenge (which I would expect J'Tia to lose).

The other factor on the Brains tribe is the hidden immunity idol. Garrett left it buried "near treemail" at camp. So will there be clues leading to its new location now? I hope so. Although the chances of the Brains tribe actually winning a clue are pretty slim. I really hope they do though. They may be the oddest tribe in history, but that's exactly why I'm still rooting for them.

Now onto the other tribes... let's start with Brawn. Right now it appears to be Tony and Trish on one side and everyone else on the other side united by their love for Cliff. But if Trish is accurate in saying that Lindsey isn't doing any work, that could be getting on the nerves of the other Aparri members too. And especially with Tony admitting to Sarah that he's a cop in the next episode, I think that Lindsey is set to be the first person voted out of Aparri, assuming they ever lose a challenge. I don't think they will lose many challenges throughout the season, so the other 5 may stay together, with Sarah, Tony, and Trish being the core three.

On the Beauty Tribe, we have the three pairs: Alexis and Jefra, LJ and Jeremiah, and Morgan and Brice. Brice tried to get Jeremiah on his side but Jeremiah didn't say much, besides how Jefra and Alexis are getting on his nerves, so I don't know that he's really with them. We never actually saw them make an agreement. I think his loyalties lie with LJ, and LJ will want to target Morgan and Brice for a couple reasons. One, he already suspects that Morgan has an idol or idol clue. And second, he seems to be close with Alexis. They were seen playing coconut bowling together and Alexis was the first to hug him after he won the second immunity challenge. Granted, that's not a lot to go off of, but I've just gotten some feeling that the two have some sort of bond. I wouldn't be surprised if an Alexis, LJ, Jeremiah, Jefra alliance already exists, and we just don't know about it. Regardless, I see the Beauty tribe less as three pairs and more as one chain: Jefra gets along with Alexis, who is close with LJ, who is bros with Jeremiah, who is attracted to Morgan, who is friends with Brice. Logically, the people in most danger would be those with the fewest connections: The two people on the ends of the chain, Jefra and Brice. I'd say Morgan is in just as much danger though, because LJ is suspicious of her and she probably isn't as good in the challenges as Brice. Plus, her connection with Jeremiah is likely to be overpowered by LJ's connection with Jeremiah. Morgan had a good episode, convincing almost everyone with her idol cover-up, but I still don't think she'll be around much longer. She's still my pick to get voted out if Beauty loses.

Some final thoughts about the premiere:

I loved when Garrett got scared by the spider. It was hilarious, but I don't fault him for it. I can totally relate.

Did anyone else notice Alexis' facial expressions while LJ was doing the puzzle in the second immunity challenge? They were perfect.

I don't understand Tony's spy shack at all. It looks like he's just standing outside the shelter listening. How is that a shack!?

I know that the brains tribe won't be completely starved without their rice. What was with those giant red and yellow fruit they were eating? It looked delicious, but it was also super crunchy...

It's probably a good thing that the Survivor pool isn't actually happening. Garrett would have picked up some points for finding the idol, but it's still not good that he was voted out second. And J'Tia and Spencer could both be out in the next couple of weeks. And they were my easy picks! Sarah's doing great though. She really could be a triple threat in this game: physical, social, and strategic, plus she's entertaining. And Alexis could still make it far. Overall though, my pool hopes would have plummeted after this first episode.

And that's all! What did you think about the premiere? Feel free to speak your mind in the comments! I'll be eagerly awaiting next week's episode; It looks like this will be a great season!