Survivor Cagayan Cast Preview!

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

We're only a week away from the start of Survivor's next season and my excitement levels are high. The cast has been out for quite some time now, and it's looking like a good one. There are plenty of players who actually seem like they are big fans of the show, and while I really love the brains tribe, there are some interesting players on the other tribes too who could have just as much game-playing ability as the smartest of the brains.

For the past couple years, I've joined a Survivor pool in which you pick 5 players before the season starts, and they earn you points based on how long they last, how many tribal and individual challenges they win, and how many hidden idols they find. So I came up with this great idea to base my preview blog on my thought process for choosing these players, only to learn that the pool wasn't happening this season... 

So I'm just going to pretend that it is. Following are my thoughts on each player, and the five I would have picked had there been a pool this season. Those five aren't necessarily the people I think will make the final 5 (that would be much too hard to predict), but they are the five I think have the best chances of going very deep into the game. 

Now, when the cast videos were first released, I gave each contestant a rating from 1 to 5 based on their bio, and another ranking from 1 to 5 based on their video. Unfortunately, I don't have those ratings with me currently and won't have them until a couple days before the show starts, and by that time I'll be studying for midterms and won't want to write a giant preview blog, so we'll have to make do without the ratings. It's not much of a loss anyways, because those ratings would have changed a lot after seeing all that I have since originally rating the players.

Anyways, without further ado, let us begin!

Aparri (Brawn) Tribe

Cliff is a former NBA player, and this immediately raised red flags with me. The problem with any sort of "celebrity" player is that the million dollar prize isn't much of an incentive for them, which means they have one less reason to try to win the game. If the survival aspect of the game-- the weather, lack of food and comfort, etc.-- gets tough, most players would endure because they are driven by their desire for money, but this won't apply to Cliff. He's a giant, which means the lack of food will be especially hard on him, and the only reason he would have to stay in the game would be to win the title of Sole Survivor, which may not be so important for him once he's actually out there, trying to weather the elements. While I don't see him quitting the game, I also don't see him trying very hard to stay in the game once he's targeted. And he will be targeted, simply because he appears to be very intimidating as a physical competitor. At best, I see Cliff being one of the first members of the jury. At worst, he could be the first one out of his tribe, especially if his former career is made public.

You only need to take one look at Lindsey to see that she will start this game as the odd one out. Based on her bio, I was convinced that she would be the first out of the Aparri tribe. However, after watching her video I felt a little better about her. She has a good sense of humour, so if she has enough time to build some solid relationships before her tribe goes to their first Tribal Council, she has a chance to survive, and make it deep into the game. However, she doesn't seem to have much game-knowledge, so while I can see her possibly being taken to the end as a goat, I don't think she will have any real control over the game or any chance to actually win.

After watching Sarah's videos and reading her bio, Sarah was one of my favourites on the Brawn tribe. I can't remember if she had the highest rating on the tribe, but I wouldn't be surprised if she did. However, I still wasn't really considering her as a pick for the pool. The best thing she had going for her was that she had identified Tony as a fellow cop, and she said she planned on having one person she could really trust and then building her alliance outward. If she and Tony did team up, they could be a powerful duo and probably at least make the merge together, unless the entire rest of the Aparri tribe voted against them. Despite this, it wasn't until Rob Cesternino and his wife Nicole both wanted to pick Sarah to win on the RHAP preview podcast that I really started to consider Sarah as a potential pool pick. And, since then, two of the Rob has a Podcast bloggers have picked her too. Jeff Probst also had good things to say about her in the cast assessment. It seems almost everyone likes Sarah's chances, and they have me convinced. Sarah has what it takes to win: She knows the game, is likable, and doesn't seem like she'll be overeager to make moves and overplay, which would not be good. Plus, if she has an alliance with Tony, he will surely be the bigger target of the two, which gives her a little bit of insurance should things start going south for the pair.

Tony has OK chances, thanks to his possible alliance with Sarah. He seems to have reasonable knowledge of the game. But, unlike Sarah, he probably won't be as likable-- I can see him being much too bossy for the other players' tastes-- and he is definitely the type who will play too hard, too fast. If Sarah can't hold him back, he could screw both of them by making impulsive game moves early on. He says he wants to be like Russell Hantz, so you can bet he'll be putting a target on his back by looking for an idol right off the bat. Tony could probably make the merge pretty easily, but after that his gameplay will start to catch up to him and he'll be a very big target. I can't see him playing as well strategically as Russell Hantz, so I think he'll be voted out long before the finals. And even if he somehow made finals, he likely won't have many friends on the jury and it would be tough for him to win the game.

Trish reminds me a lot of Survivor Caramoan's Sherri. I definitely think she can make it far in the game, but I'm not sure that she will be in the driver's seat at any point. She seems to be very likable, which is great for her chances of making it far, but also makes her a threat when it gets close to the final three. If she does manage to make strategic decisions throughout the game, she may make enough people angry that she won't be viewed as a likeability threat, which may be the best case scenario for her in the endgame. I can see Trish winning, but she would have to play the game mostly with her head rather than her heart, and I'm not sure that she can do that.

Lots of people have compared Woo to Fabio, and I can see where they're coming from. Woo seems to be very interested in having an adventure, and not so interested in playing the game of Survivor. Woo will not be making any strategic decisions this season, and I think he'll be a bit of a non-factor. Perhaps comparable to Philippines' Carter. His likeability and challenge strength can take him well into the merge, but unless he wins all of the immunity's at the end, I don't think Woo makes the final three.

Luzon (Brains) Tribe

I don't like David's chances for the same reason I don't like Cliffs chances. He's the president of the Miami Marlins, so the money isn't going to be a big deal for him. That being said, I don't see the elements being as hard on him as they are on Cliff. He's the oldest of the Brains tribe and is used to being a leader, so it seems that he is destined to take on the leadership role on this tribe, which is a precarious position in Survivor. If he is too bossy, the tribe could vote him out first. But, I think the tribe will be more worried about removing the weakest links challenge-wise, and that could give David the chance he needs to get himself into a strong alliance. As long as his occupation remains a secret, his chances actually aren't so bad. If Garrett is part of his alliance, Garrett will be the bigger target come merge time. I can actually see David making it to the end, and winning. But this is only if he can overcome his label as a leader that he will inevitably get at the beginning of the game. I'm cheering against David if only because I like the rest of the Brains tribe too much, so I'm just gonna go ahead and say he doesn't make the merge. He may survive one Tribal, but if the Brains go to Tribal Council again, it's not a stretch to say they could  vote out their leader. I also get the sense that they;ll be annoyed by him, but I'm not sure where that's coming from, because I actually found him quite funny in his video.

I actually remember the rating I gave Garrett during my initial cast assessment: 9.5. Garrett has a whole lot going for him. He's clearly the most physically fit on his tribe. He's a Survivor superfan. He's a pro-poker player, which should mean he's good at reading people and lying and all that pokery stuff that I know nothing about. He says he put 2000 hours of preparation into this, which is just insane. I think his challenge strength will get him through the early game, but after that he will have a giant bullseye on his back. He'll have to keep other big targets in the game to give himself a chance. I can see him starting the game in a Brains alliance, but I don't think him and Spencer can work together for the entire game. I see a power struggle between him and Spencer, with Spencer likely coming out on top simply because Garrett is clearly the more intimidating player. However, I'm not ruling Garrett out. He's easily one of the biggest Survivor fans on the season, and he won't be going down without a fight. Even if he doesn't make it to the end, he'll probably win some individual challenges, which translates into points in the non-existent Survivor pool. Garrett won't have an easy time with it, but he is definitely capable of winning the game.

I would be surprised if J'Tia didn't at least make the final 7. She's a big fan of Survivor, she's smart, she's competitive, she's likeable, and she doesn't appear very threatening. Plus she's an engineer, which gives her major bonus points. J'Tia should have no problem getting herself into an alliance in the beginning. I can't see her being much of a target until the endgame. Like Sarah, everyone seems to love her chances, and unlike with Sarah, I had come to the same conclusion on my own. I think she has a great chance of winning the whole thing. The one thing she has to watch out for are her fellow Brains-- she can't underestimate them. Many of them know the game just as well or more than she does. If she can anticipate and prepare for the moves that they will want to make, then she should have no problem getting to the end.

Kass was one of my favourites based on her bio and video. I like her slightly less now because she's really annoying on Twitter, but I'd still like to see her make it far in the game. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem very likely. Kass seems to have a personality that the others will either love or hate. She appears to be the physically weakest on the Brains tribe, so unless she can get herself into an alliance early on, she could very likely be the first boot from her tribe. She does have some things going for her, though: She's a big fan of the game and will appear very non-threatening. If she can make it past the first couple tribal councils, she will have a great chance of going all the way. But to survive the first days, she'll have to just lay back and go along with her tribe. She appears to be very argumentative, and if she's disagreeing with the rest of her tribe in the beginning, she will be the first Luzon member voted out. It's worth noting that she has this big Twitter feud going on with Tony. They hate each other, which makes me think that they've spent some time together. That would either mean they both made the merge, or they both were voted out early and went on the same pre-merge-boots-trip together. Since I'm expecting Tony to make the merge, that gives me hope that Kass will, too.

Some people think Spencer will be the first out, others think he'll make it far, but everyone seems to agree on one thing: He can't win. Well, everyone except me. I think that if Spencer makes the final 3, he wins the game. I'm not positive that he'll make the final 3-- I can see him having a game similar to Malcolm's in the Philippines: He gets to the final five or four and then messes up and gets voted out. But I definitely think he'll be around for a long time. While he does come off a little arrogant in his videos, I think he's smart enough and able enough to keep that in check during the game. As a fellow guy who thinks he's the smartest person ever, I can relate to Spencer. If he's anything like me, he won't be anything like that around his tribemates, unless he gets to a point with them that he considers them close enough friends and knows they won't hold it against him if acts a little arrogant. I think he will actually be in a similar position as J'Tia: He's a superfan, will probably be likeable, and doesn't appear threatening. The fact that he may not be as likeable as J'Tia can actually increase his chances, as people will be okay with going to the end with him. Like with J'Tia, I'll be shocked if he doesn't at least make final 7. Also, there's a good chance that he's the first RHAP listener to play Survivor, which is a good thing for him.

Tasha has everything going for her that Spencer and J'tia do with the exception of one thing-- Brains. I'm sure she's a pretty smart woman, but nothing about her screams Brains tribe, and she doesn't appear to be as much of a Survivor fan as them. She's likeable, and strong enough to avoid being voted out as a weak-link but no so strong to be seen as a big threat after the merge. So I can see her going very far-- even all the way to the final three. But I don't think she'll have any control over her fate and I don't think she'll win the game. She simply doesn't have the Survivor know-how to play on the same level as her Brains tribemates.

Solana (Beauty) Tribe

Many people have been calling Alexis the black horse going into this season, and that's the exact same feeling I got about her too. After reading her bio, I felt that she would be a really good player. But then her video was a bit of a disappointment. I can see her being one of the first boots, or I could see her being great. She said that she considers herself more of a brain than a brawn or beauty, so I have to assume she has some intelligence. She doesn't seem like a Survivor superfan, but she says her dad loves the show so I assume she's watched a lot of it with him growing up, so she should have a decent game understanding. And she's a psychology student, which is a definite plus. The game is all about psychology, so she should have an advantage in that sense. If the beauty tribe loses a lot of challenges, though, she could easily be gone early. Her best chance would be to team up with the other girls and take a couple of the guys out. Even if she doesn't, though, I see her at least surviving the first Tribal Council, because I don't see Morgan being very like by her tribe. I think Alexis has a chance to win. But I also think she has a good chance of placing in pretty much any other position. So I don't really have a good prediction for her.



Brice sticks out like a sore thumb, which could make him an easy first target for the Beauty tribe. His best bet seems to be to team up with the girls, but that would leave Jeremiah and LJ on the outs and I don't know that the girls will be comfortable voting out their two strongest men, so my hopes aren't high that that alliance will actually happen. That doesn't mean there's no hope for Brice, though. There are lots of ways this Beauty tribe can unfold. Maybe Morgan gets on the tribes nerves and becomes the first target. A couple could emerge and put a target on their own backs. Brice has a loud personality, so it'll be hard for him to stay under the radar. He'll have a target on his back the whole game, but that's exactly why I can see him winning over a jury if he makes the final 3. I just don't think he'll have the social game to make it that far.



I think I wrote off Jefra right away when I read her bio, because I considered her to be the token recruited pageant girl who would have no chance of actually winning the game. That was my bad. I must've just skimmed over her bio or something because I somehow missed the fact that even though she's just 23, she's already gone through a lot. She's a cancer survivor, and she overcame addiction. She's also an outdoors girl, so the elements shouldn't be as hard on her as they might be on her female tribesmates. She seems extremely likeable, and will probably be better in physical challenges than the other girls on her tribe, so she shouldn't be an early target. If the Beauty tribe goes on a losing streak, which they easily could, that's when she could have a tough time staying in the game. Also, if she develops a romance with fellow southerner Jeremiah (which seems likely considering the two can already be seen together in some footage (I think)) than she could find herself being one of the first to go. Her tribe could try to break up the couple and they'd definitely vote her out over Jeremiah. If Jefra can get to the merge, though, she has a good chance of making it very far, and I can see her winning.



Jeremiah compares himself to J.T., and I would agree with that. I thought the same thing as soon as I saw his video. However, I'm not sure that Jeremiah can do as well as J.T. did in the game. He doesn't seem to have a very good understanding of the strategic game. He will probably be very well-liked, but that alone can only take him so far, especially when he'll be seen as an individual challenge threat. I think he'll make the merge, as long as that Brice and the girls alliance doesn't happen, but I don't think he'll make it much farther than that. I definitely don't see Jeremiah winning this game.



Like David on the Brains tribe, LJ seems destined to take the leadership role on Solana. This may not be such a bad thing for LJ though. He seems like he'll be very calm and level-headed, patient with his tribe and liked by them. He is well-suited for the leadership role, and is capable of building trust with his tribe by being the leader. I think the Beauty tribe will respect his decisions and appreciate him as a leader, and he should stick around at least until the merge. My one worry for him in the early game is that we already know he will be doing the puzzle portion of the first immunity challenge rather than the physical portion, and if his tribe loses that challenge they may be upset with him for not doing the physical work. I really don't think that will be enough for them to vote him out though. He doesn't talk a lot about the strategic game, so I'm worried about how he'll fare after the merge when he'll be a big target, but if he can make it to the end he can surely win the game.



I can easily see Morgan being the first boot of Survivor Cagayan. She won't be an asset in challenges, and she doesn't seem likeable enough to build the relationships necessary to be a strategic force in the game. She may be dragged all the way to the end, but she won't win. She doesn't appear to be a Survivor fan. She thinks the others will do what she wants just because she's beautiful. I really can't see her game being good in any aspect-- not strategically, not physically, not even socially. More than anyone else on the cast, I am convinced that Morgan cannot win the game.

My Picks!

So, who from the cast would I pick in this theoretical Survivor pool? My first three choices were easy:

Garrett Adelstein- Garrett could be on any of the three tribes. I think he'll be a force to be reckoned with physically, strategically, and socially. He could very easily end up with the biggest target on his back of anyone in the game, but I think it would be foolish to bet against this superfan.

J'Tia Taylor- J'Tia seems very game-smart and likeable, but doesn't appear very threatening. In many ways this seems like her game to lose.

Spencer Bledsoe- Same as J'Tia, except a bigger fan of the show and potentially less likeable. I think Spencer will succeed in controlling his arrogance and go very far in the game. In the original Meet the Cast Video, Spencer is portrayed as the season's villain, which also makes me think that he'll be around for a long while.

I liked the Brains tribe so much, at first I wanted to choose all 5 from that tribe. But that wouldn't have been very smart as me...

Sarah Lacina- After everyone began to rave about how great Sarah was, I began to seriously consider her as a pick. It didn't take long to become convinced that she had a very good chance of going all the way. (It's worth noting that last season, I picked Rachel because Rob and Nicole Cesternino both picked her to win, and that didn't go well for me at all. Now I'm picking Sarah for pretty much the same reason...)

My last pick was the hardest. Did I want to pick another Brain? Tasha or Kass could both do very well. Or do I want a representative from the Beauty tribe? LJ and Alexis both struck me as potentially great players. Eventually I decided on....

Alexis Maxwell- It's always good to have one "secret weapon" on your pool team: Someone who not a lot of people will probably pick but who might do great in the game. In One World, Kat was my secret weapon. Dawson in Philippines and Tina in Blood vs. Water were also secret weapons. Sometimes it pays off to take a risk and pick them, sometimes it doesn't. But my initial gut reaction about Alexis was that she'd do very well, and so she's earned a spot in my Survivor pool team that doesn't actually exist.

And that's that. This blog entry is much too long already and I don't even think I'm that good at this pre-season prediction stuff. So sorry if this was really boring :s

Do you agree with my assessment? Express your thoughts in the comments!