It's Not Whether You Win or Lose

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

And with that, the first Blood versus Water season is in the books. I say "first" because it was such a great season that the twist will surely be used again. 

Before I get into the finale, I'm gonna give you an idea of what my past few days have been like, because I think it's kinda interesting. Since 8 O'clock on Sunday night, I've watched the 3 hour season finale twice, listened to an hour long podcast about it, watched about 2 hours of secret scenes, watched the hour long after show, and listened to about an hour and a half of exit interviews... maybe a couple-month-long break from Survivor won't be such a bad thing. (Except it'll probably be more like a week-long break because I'll surely start watching old seasons and following Rob Cesternino's off-season Survivor coverage).

So the finale was pretty predictable. The only big surprise happened early on, when Tina beat Laura and re-entered the game. Besides that, everything I guessed in my last blog came true: Ciera went home first, followed by the redemption island returner, Gervase had no chance of winning, Monica had only a small chance (as shown by the vote Vytas gave her), and Tyson rose up as our winner. Just to be clear, just because it was predictable doesn't mean it wasn't good. I thoroughly enjoyed myself throughout the entire episode and reunion. However, it means there's not a whole lot to analyze. Since Tyson won both immunities, Monica and Gervase didn't even get the chance to make a move and possibly overthrow him. So there isn't a whole lot to talk about in terms of analysis (or maybe I just don't feel like putting in the work to analyse), so I'm just going to give some of my thoughts on some of the things that happened during the finale and reunion.

Tyson is definitely a worthy winner. I think he can be placed in the top tier of winners, with others who controlled the entire game with very few mistakes, like Boston Rob and Kim Spradlin. I'm still not a fan of his decision to go to rocks but obviously it worked out for him so I can't really call it a flaw in his game. 

I like Hayden almost as much as I like Tyson. Having a new player who isn't afraid to fight to stay in the game is so refreshing. I love how he doesn't give up, and how he hates to lose. He kinda reminds me of myself, actually. You know, just with muscles and social skills that I only dream I will magically obtain when I go on Survivor... actually maybe our only similarity is our drive to win.

What was with those jury questions to Monica!? Was it just me, or did Caleb, Laura, and Hayden all ask her the exact same question? I felt bad for her because I also didn't really understand what they wanted her to do. I think it reflected bad on her when she kind of broke and gave her "Haven't y'all ever met a nice person before?" speech, but I really couldn't blame her. The jury wasn't making a lot of sense and I would be frustrated too.

I'd like to discuss Vytas' vote for Monica. He has said on twitter that he did it because he knew Tyson was winning and wanted to make sure Monica got her deserved second place all to herself, which I can respect. It's unfortunate that it ended up being the one vote that kept Tyson from a perfect game (getting every vote at the end and no votes during the game (Tyson didn't get any votes during the game, did he?)), but I don't hate Vytas for doing it. Anyways, I think he may have another reason for doing it. Is it possible that Vytas voted for Monica so that, if he were to play Survivor again, he can use the threat that he used on Tyson and people would know he was telling the truth? That he really would not give them his vote in the end if they voted him out? Because he has probably just become the only Survivor player who can now use that threat and actually have a chance of having it successfully save him.

I liked the reunion show better than last year. It was great having everyone on stage again, and Jeff gave nearly everyone a chance to talk. We didn't need to hear from this random "Missy" girl in the audience, and we didn't have to talk to Cochran, although that clip of him was pretty great (and reminded me of the clip with Parvati and Jeff Probst from TV Guide channel's preview show). That time could've been used talking to Tyson a little longer and giving Marissa the chance to say something. Besides that, it was a good reunion show. I was glad Jeff finally admitted Colton didn't quit the first time. I was surprised Jeff was being as nice to him as he was. I don't even know what to think about Kat's comments, but I can say this. Usually if someone isn't very smart, I can't help but not like them. But Kat, while clearly not the brightest, is impossible not to like. Her moment didn't make a lot of sense, but it was possibly the most memorable moment of the reunion show. I was happy to see Jeff ask Vytas and Hayden if they would come back, because I'd love to see both of them again.

I'd also love to see Ciera play again. Jeff said something I really liked when he was discussing her gameplay: "Playing is what matters. It's not where you finish, it's giving the effort" which is a phrase pretty much synonymous with the phrase the title of my blog is based on "It's not whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game." These are the sorts of things that should be on every Survivor players mind while they play the game. Jeff said it best when he told the audience, about Ciera, "This is how you play the game!"

At first I wasn't a big fan of next season's brawns vs brains vs beauty twist, because I figured we'd have two whole tribes of worthless players (the brawns and beauty). The beauty tribe will probably be full of recruits who may or may not have ever seen the show before, and that;s disappointing. But then when I started to think about it I realized it's not so bad, for a couple of reasons.

First, I'm assuming the brain's tribe will be full of big fans of the show, and if that's true that means we'll have at least 6 potentially great players. The problem is they're all on one tribe, so if they ever lose immunity a potentially good player will be going home for sure (although there will have to be one or two of those really annoying nerdy people who will look down on everyone else and will have a worse social game than even I would, and they could easily be the first to go from that tribe).

Second, the physical strength of the brawns tribe and mental strength of the brains tribe will give both of those tribes advantages in the challenges. But being beautiful has no benefits in the challenge aspect of the game (unless the other tribes are too distracted by the beauty to focus on the challenge!), so I'm predicting that the beauty tribe will be decimated. This, coupled with the fact that we have had good-looking, smart players before (ex. Parvati, Malcolm), means that the beginning of the season could set up the rest of the season to be great. If there are one or two smart players on the beauty tribe, they can take control and vote out all of the dumb ones as they lose challenge after challenge. Then we'd be left with the brains tribe, which should be mostly full of smart players, the survivors of the beauty tribe, who should also be good players, and a brawns tribe, which will probably also have one or two players with some good game understanding, at a point relatively early in the game. With so many potentially great players, the remainder of the season could be amazing. So my hopes are high.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to express your thoughts about the finale and next season with a comment!

The Endgame

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Another week, another great Survivor episode. While the end result was predictable, there was certainly enough gameplay going on to keep it interesting, and the edit had me guessing towards the end. I really started to think that Monica would change her vote. In the end though, Hayden and Ciera's arguments were not enough and Hayden was sent to Redemption Island. 

I have to say, Monica and Laura have been two of my least favourite players in this game, but both of them gained some respect from me in this episode. 

I think it's safe to say at this point that Laura Morett is one of the most physically dominant female players in Survivor history (The same argument could be made for Monica too, actually, but she impressed me for altogether different reasons this episode). Laura doesn't just win these Redemption challenges, she blows her competitors out of the water. I mean, she had won the duel before Tina, the second place finisher, had even retrieved her first key!  Last week, at the point when she won the duel, her opponents towers were barely half the height of her own, and she was the only one who actually managed to finish her tower in the time limit. The week before that, she finished her cube puzzle before Vytas or Tina had really made any progress on it. It's unbelievable how quickly she wins these, and though I still don't consider her an overall good Survivor player, and still find her very annoying, I have to give her credit where credit's due.

For Monica, it was her voting decision that impressed me. Ciera and Hayden were making great arguments as to why she should flip, and when they said that Brad and her kids would be watching her let Tyson control her moves, and how she needed to start playing Monica's game, I thought they'd gotten to her. But Monica didn't let her heart take over. She knew that her chances in a final three against Hayden and Ciera would be even worse than against Tyson and Gervase. She knew that the more Hayden and Ciera accused Tyson and Gervase of being such evil people, the worse Tyson and Gervase appeared to the jury, and the more her chances of beating them in the end increased.

What I don't like about Monica's game is how she plans to finish it. I think that her only chance of winning is if she is in the finals with Gervase and whoever comes back from Redemption Island. Tyson and Ciera have both played great games that will win over the jury should one of them make it to the final three. But Gervase has been showcasing his horrible social game at Tribal Council, and whoever comes back from Redemption Island will have a big strike against them because they were already voted out of the game (twice, if it's Laura who comes back). These are the two Monica should want to get to the end with, but according to her secret scenes, she plans on sticking with Tyson all the way. I can see her getting a couple votes in that scenario, but Tyson would surely win the game.

Tina is someone else who made a good decision this week. I was glad she didn't give up her game for Katie, although I doubt she would have taken the win if Katie had been opposed to it. And it'll be tough for Tina to return now that her final duel will be against Laura and Hayden, both of whom have expressed in secret scenes their confidence in their abilities to return to the game.

As I predicted last week, the final results of the episode were predictable: Hayden didn't win immunity, so Hayden was voted out. Before I get into the tribal council, something needs to be addressed. Since when is "You are going to have to dig deep" a classic Survivor phrase!? Sure, Jeff's said it a couple times, but classic? I don't think so. That being said, this word puzzle was much better than most of the ones I remember from the past, where the word or phrase is so obvious that you can probably guess what it is before the challenge even starts. Like "Immunity," or "Final <insert number here>", or "Outwit, outplay, outlast."

Was it just me, or was this tribal council extremely similar to last week's? There was a tug of war for the swing vote, resulting in Gervase exploding in anger and once again showing his faults to the jury. The only difference was that this time the tug of war didn't actually succeed. Oddly enough, I found myself actually cheering for Hayden and Ciera even though Tyson is my favourite. It's probably because these two actually play the game. Unlike 90% of the Survivor contestants we've seen, they aren't going to go down without a fight. If Survivor would just cast only people who are smart enough to know how to play the game, and competitive enough to not give up, then every season would probably be spectacular. Even if the boot order was predictable (which would be unlikely), the cast would keep it interesting by fighting to the bitter end to stay in the game, coming up with all kinds of schemes to turn things around.

Anyways, not much else to analyze this week, so I'm just going to make as many finale predictions as I can!!

First, who comes back from Redemption Island? And how could I go with anyone other than Laura? The previews show us that the challenge is the same one that was played at this point in season 22: balancing a pot at one end of a plank with your foot at the other end. This isn't a challenge that will favour Hayden's strength. Last time, it was Andrea who won this challenge, beating three men who had all proven their challenge strength before. And I can't imagine Tina doing well after seeing how shaky she was in this week's challenge. So Laura will probably be coming back, again.

Who will be voted out first? Clearly, Ciera or Laura. There are good reasons for voting out either of them. Laura would be more likely to win the final immunity challenge if given the chance, but Ciera is the bigger jury threat. I think, in the end, Ciera will be the one to go, because even if Laura could win the final challenge, she's not someone who you'd have to worry about taking all of the jury votes, unlike Ciera. Also, there's a pretty good chance that Laura wins the final 5 immunity challenge, which would seal the deal and send Ciera to Ponderosa.

After that, Laura's only chance of making final 3 will be to win immunity. If she does, who goes home? More and more secret scenes are suggesting that the closest alliance is Tyson and Monica, so they could turn on Gervase. But with Gervase being a complete non-threat, it's possible that Tyson would want to join him and vote out Monica, who has at least a small chance of winning should she make final three. The other option would be for Gervase and Monica to turn on Tyson, which would be their smartest move. Then Gervase could take sole credit for all of the moves he and Tyson made together, and Monica's game wouldn't be overshadowed by Tyson's, and she'd probably win it all. I'm really not sure which way it could go... but I'm gonna say that Tyson and Monica would vote out Gervase, because I can't see Gervase turning on Tyson, who has been his closest ally since the beginning, and I think Tyson would rather have Gervase on the jury than Monica, who would almost definitely be bitter. I'm not confident in this prediction, because I can truly see any of the three scenarios playing out. And we may never find out if I'm right if one of them is the one to win final immunity.

Finally, who will win? My bet is on Tyson. I can only see three scenarios where Tyson doesn't win. First, the aforementioned possibility of Gervase and Monica voting him out at final four. Second, if Ciera somehow wins one or both of the immunities and gets into the final 3 (and even if she did, I'm still not sure she would beat Tyson, but she'd surely give him a run for his money). And third, if Hayden is the one to come back from Redemption Island and wins both immunities, securing his spot in the final 3. This would be very unlikely given the tough physical competition he'd have, and once again I'm still not sure that he would beat Tyson, but he would have a very good chance.

This finale could be quite predictable, but there's definitely some potential for surprises. It's been an amazing season and I can't wait to see how it ends!

To Rock or not to Rock?

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

I gotta say, I'm pretty proud of myself. In my first ever Survivor blog nearly all my predictions were right! Gervase won immunity, and I was right about who the votes would be split between. The only thing I missed was that Ciera was the one to flip, not Gervase. But that's no big deal, right? It's not like half my blog was about that one prediction... and it's not like my Gervase winning immunity prediction was entirely based on that prediction... Umm yeah, I'm just gonna change the topic.

So, Hayden manages to sway Ciera to his side. Or was it Gervase who pushed Ciera towards Hayden? Regardless of how horribly Gervase was playing during Tribal, you have to give Hayden credit. I didn't watch his season of Big Brother, but I can definitely see why he won. It's very rare for someone to change their mind during Tribal Council on who to vote for. Especially if changing their vote would put them in jeopardy at that very Tribal, but Hayden somehow convinces Ciera to vote with him. In the first scene where Hayden is working on flipping Ciera, she says that she can't join him because it would be a 3-3 tie and she was not willing to draw rocks... yet apparently that wasn't the case. Hayden (and Jeff Probst) repeatedly called out Gervase and Monica on what they said and how they were being quite clear that Ciera was number 4. Hayden's arguments were compelling, and he was finally able to break Ciera out of her delusions.

Because she was delusional. In her secret scenes this week, she declares that she's sure she can beat Tyson in the end. She also says that she considers her decision not to burn the idol clue as a "big move", and if she thinks those are the moves that she needs to make to win against Tyson, then she hasn't really got a clue at all. I can imagine it now, the jury question at final tribal council: "Ciera, besides voting out your mom, what was your biggest move in this game?" And Ciera replies, "I didn't burn the idol clue that one time. Remember?"

Don't get me wrong, I do like Ciera. I tend to like anyone who plays the game hard, and won't go down without a fight, and Ciera has certainly been exceeding expectations since the merge. Especially with her move tonight. I still don't think she can beat Tyson if it comes down to the two of them in the final three, but she's definitely building a solid case, and that's more than I can say for Gervase or Monica, who, unlike Ciera, are both STILL delusional.

Gervase especially. His reaction when Hayden told the others he hoped they liked second place at the beginning of the episode proved it. Gervase really thinks he has a chance to win against Tyson. And while I might have agreed that he had at least a small chance before, if the jury liked his strategy of making the same moves as Tyson while not being the leader, he doesn't have a chance anymore. His social game is absolutely terrible. We saw it in the first episode, when his obnoxious victory cheer sent Marissa to Redemption Island, and while he seemed better for a while, his social shortcomings have revealed themselves once again. He exploded at Hayden, called Caleb a sore loser, had the jury laughing at him during his argument at Tribal Council, and looked like a jerk as he shouted his voting confessional for all to hear. And that's not even including the fact that it's very possible that he was the primary reason for Ciera's flip. His secret scenes this week are all about how he can see it all coming together, him and Tyson making it to the final three. He really thinks he can win.

In Monica's secret scenes, when she's not talking about finally eating real food instead of "imaginatory" food, she also says she can beat Tyson. Caleb's behaviour at the duel only reinforced this in her mind. The way he called out Tyson and Gervase for breaking their word seems to have got her hopes up that the jury will be bitter towards the two... but Caleb also implied that the only people he wasn't bitter at were Hayden and Katie. If Monica makes it to the final three with Tyson and Gervase, a bitter jury won't help her if they're bitter at all three of them.

Like I said previously, I think Ciera made the right move by going to rocks. Gervase and Monica made it clear she wasn't in their final 3, and while Tyson didn't, it wouldn't make sense for him to take Ciera, who has been playing a good, hard game, over Gervase and Monica, who should be easy beats. Ciera realized this was her last chance to make a move, and although she had to put herself at risk of elimination, it was her only choice if she wanted to get to the end.

It was a good move for Katie too. She was on the outs, and anything she can do to shake up the game is worth a shot. Unfortunately, luck simply was not on her side that night.

For Tyson, though, I think the risk he took with the rocks was too great. He should have switched his vote to Monica. Since Ciera's main reason for flipping was that she thought she was number four, he could've proved to her that that wasn't the case by voting out Monica. And then Ciera, now knowing she's in Tyson's planned final three, would probably stick with him. And if things weren't looking good, he'd still have the idol to fall back on. Luckily for Tyson, the odds were in his favour and he should be in a good position going forward.

I mean, isn't it pretty clear now that Tyson, Gervase, and Monica should have no problem getting to the final three, as long as one of them wins final immunity? Hayden and Ciera will try to flip Monica and/or Gervase, but as I previously mentioned, they both think they can win against Tyson. The previews specifically show Ciera trying to flip Monica, but that brings me to something interesting Tyson said in a secret scene this week. He claims that had he won the challenge, he would've shared the ice cream with Ciera and Gervase, because he considers Monica his closest alliance and wouldn't have to worry about her turning against him, It should be pretty straightforward next week. If Hayden wins immunity, Ciera will be voted out. If Hayden doesn't win immunity, he'll be voted out. 

Fortunately for us viewers, neither of these two will go down without a fight. Hayden worked a miracle once, and he'll surely try to do it again, this time with Ciera to help. Whether or not they succeed, you can bet it'll be fun to watch! It should also be interesting to see whether or not Tina throws the challenge so Katie can survive. I should hope she wouldn't throw away her game when she's getting so close to returning to the real game, but she clearly would do a lot for her daughter. Personally, I hope both Tina and Katie give it their all and knock Laura out of the game. I am so tired of her voice and her nasty habit of stealing all of the points in the Survivor pool I'm in!

One last thought: The scariest thing about this tribal council was that if Tyson had picked the white rock, then Hayden would have an extremely high chance of winning the whole game. And while I'm loving the way he's playing, it just wouldn't do to have one Big Brother player single-handedly show up an entire group of past Survivor's and take the entire game. I'd be quite happy for him to stay on the outs, maybe survive one or two more Tribals, and then get voted out. He's much more interesting when he's fighting to stay alive in the game anyways.

What are your thoughts? Are you cheering for Hayden to pull off the win? Should Tyson have turned on Monica? Are you impressed with my skills of prediciton? Because I am. State your opinion in the comments below!

On the Rocks

First of all, I realize I'm a little late on the Survivor blogging-scene this season. Nothing I could do about that because I really never expected myself to actually start writing a blog. Still can't really believe it, actually. But fear not, I have been watching and very much enjoying the season.

I have only one complaint, and it has nothing to do with the game. The season has had many unpredictable moments, which would be great if they weren't SO PREDICTABLE! CBS has practically been giving away every big move that happens with their previews. Aras' blindside and Ciera voting out her mom were both moments that should have been mind-blowingly amazing. But they weren't, because by the time they happened, they'd been teased so often that anyone watching would probably have been more surprised if they didn't happen. And it only gets worse this week.

At least the previews before have never told us exactly what happens at Tribal Council. They've only hinted at how the vote would turn out. But this week's commercial is full of spoilers. Not only does it apparently show who the 3rd jury member is (Thankfully, I didn't notice this when I watched), it also tells us what happens at Tribal, short of who actually gets the votes and goes home.

Unfortunately, I can't unsee what I have seen. So I might as well make predictions based on it. If you haven't seen the commercial and don't want to be spoiled at all, I suggest you stop reading now.

The worst thing about this spoilery commercial is that the moment it teases is so insane, so unexpected, that I probably would have been jumping out of my seat and running around my room in disbelief as it happened if I didn't know it was coming. That experience of pure excitement has been robbed from me now, but in return I have been provided with some interesting content to make predictions off of. There is going to be a 3-3 tie, which most likely means Hayden will find somebody to flip and vote with himself and Katie. The previews would have us believe that that person is Gervase, but even though the previews this season have often been right, my first instinct is still not to believe them.

But then, who else could it be? Ciera made it clear last week that she wouldn't be turning on Tyson, and I find it hard to believe that Hayden would try to form a new alliance with Tyson, who is the person he should have the easiest time turning the others against. That leaves only Monica. And while Hayden may be able to convince her that Tyson would take Gervase and Ciera to the final three instead of her, Monica has stayed loyal to Tyson so far despite that fact that she's always been perceived as on the bottom of his alliance. She also has a promise from Tyson to take her to the final 3, and Tyson has given her no reason to doubt him, besides hiding the fact that he had the hidden idol from her, the reasons for which I think she'll understand. Not to mention the fact that he his it from everyone, not just Monica, and so she can't take it personally. Monica is a patient player, and I don't think Monica would risk going to rocks to vote for Tyson now.

Which brings us back to Gervase. And the fact that, once again, the previews will probably be right. Gervase is someone who will be wanting to show people that he can make his own moves in the game. He's smart enough to know that he currently appears to be completely in Tyson's control. He'll see that the jury so far haven't given any indications of being bitter towards Tyson. He'll think that he will have no chance of winning against Tyson, and so he will take this opportunity to try to get him out. 

If this is the case, then Hayden, Katie, and Gervase would go to Tribal knowing that it would be a tie vote. Since those who receive votes in a tie become safe from the rocks, they'll want to vote for someone other than Tyson. The tie vote, then, will probably be between Hayden and either Ciera or Monica. Somebody will have won immunity, meaning only 3 will draw rocks. I'm going to go ahead and say Gervase wins immunity, as this would explain why he would risk the rock tie-breaker. He'd be safe no matter what. 

This means Katie, Tyson, and either Monica or Ciera will be drawing rocks. It's impossible to predict who will be going home, so I won't even try.

And this is precisely why the rock tie-breaker shouldn't exist. It adds an element of absolute randomness to the game. Someone will be eliminated because they drew a white rock from a bag instead of a black one. Doesn't matter how great they've played before that moment. The white rock is the deadliest force in the game. 

No matter how exciting the moment will be, it's not worth it if it's only happening on average once every 13 seasons. It discourages people from making moves when there are an even number of players left, because, usually, no one wants to risk leaving the game at the hands of a rock.

Back in season 2, the tiebreaker was based on past votes. Between those who were part of the tie vote, whoever had received the most votes at previous tribal councils would be eliminated from the game. In my opinion, this is a much better system. It adds a new layer of strategy to the game. Players would have to try to find out who has had votes against them before, and also try to hide votes against themselves. They'd have to work extra hard to make sure they didn't receive ANY votes at tribal, and players who know they are getting voted out would be able to leave their mark on the game by putting their vote on someone they don't want to make it to the end. Best of all, players would not be afraid of flipping at an even number if they know that they'll be safe in the resulting tie vote because their target has had numerous votes against him/her before.

What do you think? Will Gervase be the one to flip? Should ties continue to be decided by rocks? Do I have any idea what I'm talking about? Leave a comment and let me know!

Who? What? WHY!?

I know what you’re thinking: Who is this guy, and why should I read whatever it is he’s writing about? And why did he make the title of his blog something that will have me losing the game every time I look at it?

There are some simple answers: I’m Brooks MacLachlan. You should read this because I’m great. And I couldn't think of anything else!

Or there are some better answers: I'm someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with reality competition shows like Survivor and Big Brother in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing these games. You should read this because you also love Survivor and Big Brother. And I couldn't think of anything else!

I plan on analyzing everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, the social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I’ll decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I’ll predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

So, whether you are legitimately interested in what I have to say, or just want to wait for me to get something completely wrong so you can have a good laugh, enjoy!