To Rock or not to Rock?

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

I gotta say, I'm pretty proud of myself. In my first ever Survivor blog nearly all my predictions were right! Gervase won immunity, and I was right about who the votes would be split between. The only thing I missed was that Ciera was the one to flip, not Gervase. But that's no big deal, right? It's not like half my blog was about that one prediction... and it's not like my Gervase winning immunity prediction was entirely based on that prediction... Umm yeah, I'm just gonna change the topic.

So, Hayden manages to sway Ciera to his side. Or was it Gervase who pushed Ciera towards Hayden? Regardless of how horribly Gervase was playing during Tribal, you have to give Hayden credit. I didn't watch his season of Big Brother, but I can definitely see why he won. It's very rare for someone to change their mind during Tribal Council on who to vote for. Especially if changing their vote would put them in jeopardy at that very Tribal, but Hayden somehow convinces Ciera to vote with him. In the first scene where Hayden is working on flipping Ciera, she says that she can't join him because it would be a 3-3 tie and she was not willing to draw rocks... yet apparently that wasn't the case. Hayden (and Jeff Probst) repeatedly called out Gervase and Monica on what they said and how they were being quite clear that Ciera was number 4. Hayden's arguments were compelling, and he was finally able to break Ciera out of her delusions.

Because she was delusional. In her secret scenes this week, she declares that she's sure she can beat Tyson in the end. She also says that she considers her decision not to burn the idol clue as a "big move", and if she thinks those are the moves that she needs to make to win against Tyson, then she hasn't really got a clue at all. I can imagine it now, the jury question at final tribal council: "Ciera, besides voting out your mom, what was your biggest move in this game?" And Ciera replies, "I didn't burn the idol clue that one time. Remember?"

Don't get me wrong, I do like Ciera. I tend to like anyone who plays the game hard, and won't go down without a fight, and Ciera has certainly been exceeding expectations since the merge. Especially with her move tonight. I still don't think she can beat Tyson if it comes down to the two of them in the final three, but she's definitely building a solid case, and that's more than I can say for Gervase or Monica, who, unlike Ciera, are both STILL delusional.

Gervase especially. His reaction when Hayden told the others he hoped they liked second place at the beginning of the episode proved it. Gervase really thinks he has a chance to win against Tyson. And while I might have agreed that he had at least a small chance before, if the jury liked his strategy of making the same moves as Tyson while not being the leader, he doesn't have a chance anymore. His social game is absolutely terrible. We saw it in the first episode, when his obnoxious victory cheer sent Marissa to Redemption Island, and while he seemed better for a while, his social shortcomings have revealed themselves once again. He exploded at Hayden, called Caleb a sore loser, had the jury laughing at him during his argument at Tribal Council, and looked like a jerk as he shouted his voting confessional for all to hear. And that's not even including the fact that it's very possible that he was the primary reason for Ciera's flip. His secret scenes this week are all about how he can see it all coming together, him and Tyson making it to the final three. He really thinks he can win.

In Monica's secret scenes, when she's not talking about finally eating real food instead of "imaginatory" food, she also says she can beat Tyson. Caleb's behaviour at the duel only reinforced this in her mind. The way he called out Tyson and Gervase for breaking their word seems to have got her hopes up that the jury will be bitter towards the two... but Caleb also implied that the only people he wasn't bitter at were Hayden and Katie. If Monica makes it to the final three with Tyson and Gervase, a bitter jury won't help her if they're bitter at all three of them.

Like I said previously, I think Ciera made the right move by going to rocks. Gervase and Monica made it clear she wasn't in their final 3, and while Tyson didn't, it wouldn't make sense for him to take Ciera, who has been playing a good, hard game, over Gervase and Monica, who should be easy beats. Ciera realized this was her last chance to make a move, and although she had to put herself at risk of elimination, it was her only choice if she wanted to get to the end.

It was a good move for Katie too. She was on the outs, and anything she can do to shake up the game is worth a shot. Unfortunately, luck simply was not on her side that night.

For Tyson, though, I think the risk he took with the rocks was too great. He should have switched his vote to Monica. Since Ciera's main reason for flipping was that she thought she was number four, he could've proved to her that that wasn't the case by voting out Monica. And then Ciera, now knowing she's in Tyson's planned final three, would probably stick with him. And if things weren't looking good, he'd still have the idol to fall back on. Luckily for Tyson, the odds were in his favour and he should be in a good position going forward.

I mean, isn't it pretty clear now that Tyson, Gervase, and Monica should have no problem getting to the final three, as long as one of them wins final immunity? Hayden and Ciera will try to flip Monica and/or Gervase, but as I previously mentioned, they both think they can win against Tyson. The previews specifically show Ciera trying to flip Monica, but that brings me to something interesting Tyson said in a secret scene this week. He claims that had he won the challenge, he would've shared the ice cream with Ciera and Gervase, because he considers Monica his closest alliance and wouldn't have to worry about her turning against him, It should be pretty straightforward next week. If Hayden wins immunity, Ciera will be voted out. If Hayden doesn't win immunity, he'll be voted out. 

Fortunately for us viewers, neither of these two will go down without a fight. Hayden worked a miracle once, and he'll surely try to do it again, this time with Ciera to help. Whether or not they succeed, you can bet it'll be fun to watch! It should also be interesting to see whether or not Tina throws the challenge so Katie can survive. I should hope she wouldn't throw away her game when she's getting so close to returning to the real game, but she clearly would do a lot for her daughter. Personally, I hope both Tina and Katie give it their all and knock Laura out of the game. I am so tired of her voice and her nasty habit of stealing all of the points in the Survivor pool I'm in!

One last thought: The scariest thing about this tribal council was that if Tyson had picked the white rock, then Hayden would have an extremely high chance of winning the whole game. And while I'm loving the way he's playing, it just wouldn't do to have one Big Brother player single-handedly show up an entire group of past Survivor's and take the entire game. I'd be quite happy for him to stay on the outs, maybe survive one or two more Tribals, and then get voted out. He's much more interesting when he's fighting to stay alive in the game anyways.

What are your thoughts? Are you cheering for Hayden to pull off the win? Should Tyson have turned on Monica? Are you impressed with my skills of prediciton? Because I am. State your opinion in the comments below!