The Endgame

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Another week, another great Survivor episode. While the end result was predictable, there was certainly enough gameplay going on to keep it interesting, and the edit had me guessing towards the end. I really started to think that Monica would change her vote. In the end though, Hayden and Ciera's arguments were not enough and Hayden was sent to Redemption Island. 

I have to say, Monica and Laura have been two of my least favourite players in this game, but both of them gained some respect from me in this episode. 

I think it's safe to say at this point that Laura Morett is one of the most physically dominant female players in Survivor history (The same argument could be made for Monica too, actually, but she impressed me for altogether different reasons this episode). Laura doesn't just win these Redemption challenges, she blows her competitors out of the water. I mean, she had won the duel before Tina, the second place finisher, had even retrieved her first key!  Last week, at the point when she won the duel, her opponents towers were barely half the height of her own, and she was the only one who actually managed to finish her tower in the time limit. The week before that, she finished her cube puzzle before Vytas or Tina had really made any progress on it. It's unbelievable how quickly she wins these, and though I still don't consider her an overall good Survivor player, and still find her very annoying, I have to give her credit where credit's due.

For Monica, it was her voting decision that impressed me. Ciera and Hayden were making great arguments as to why she should flip, and when they said that Brad and her kids would be watching her let Tyson control her moves, and how she needed to start playing Monica's game, I thought they'd gotten to her. But Monica didn't let her heart take over. She knew that her chances in a final three against Hayden and Ciera would be even worse than against Tyson and Gervase. She knew that the more Hayden and Ciera accused Tyson and Gervase of being such evil people, the worse Tyson and Gervase appeared to the jury, and the more her chances of beating them in the end increased.

What I don't like about Monica's game is how she plans to finish it. I think that her only chance of winning is if she is in the finals with Gervase and whoever comes back from Redemption Island. Tyson and Ciera have both played great games that will win over the jury should one of them make it to the final three. But Gervase has been showcasing his horrible social game at Tribal Council, and whoever comes back from Redemption Island will have a big strike against them because they were already voted out of the game (twice, if it's Laura who comes back). These are the two Monica should want to get to the end with, but according to her secret scenes, she plans on sticking with Tyson all the way. I can see her getting a couple votes in that scenario, but Tyson would surely win the game.

Tina is someone else who made a good decision this week. I was glad she didn't give up her game for Katie, although I doubt she would have taken the win if Katie had been opposed to it. And it'll be tough for Tina to return now that her final duel will be against Laura and Hayden, both of whom have expressed in secret scenes their confidence in their abilities to return to the game.

As I predicted last week, the final results of the episode were predictable: Hayden didn't win immunity, so Hayden was voted out. Before I get into the tribal council, something needs to be addressed. Since when is "You are going to have to dig deep" a classic Survivor phrase!? Sure, Jeff's said it a couple times, but classic? I don't think so. That being said, this word puzzle was much better than most of the ones I remember from the past, where the word or phrase is so obvious that you can probably guess what it is before the challenge even starts. Like "Immunity," or "Final <insert number here>", or "Outwit, outplay, outlast."

Was it just me, or was this tribal council extremely similar to last week's? There was a tug of war for the swing vote, resulting in Gervase exploding in anger and once again showing his faults to the jury. The only difference was that this time the tug of war didn't actually succeed. Oddly enough, I found myself actually cheering for Hayden and Ciera even though Tyson is my favourite. It's probably because these two actually play the game. Unlike 90% of the Survivor contestants we've seen, they aren't going to go down without a fight. If Survivor would just cast only people who are smart enough to know how to play the game, and competitive enough to not give up, then every season would probably be spectacular. Even if the boot order was predictable (which would be unlikely), the cast would keep it interesting by fighting to the bitter end to stay in the game, coming up with all kinds of schemes to turn things around.

Anyways, not much else to analyze this week, so I'm just going to make as many finale predictions as I can!!

First, who comes back from Redemption Island? And how could I go with anyone other than Laura? The previews show us that the challenge is the same one that was played at this point in season 22: balancing a pot at one end of a plank with your foot at the other end. This isn't a challenge that will favour Hayden's strength. Last time, it was Andrea who won this challenge, beating three men who had all proven their challenge strength before. And I can't imagine Tina doing well after seeing how shaky she was in this week's challenge. So Laura will probably be coming back, again.

Who will be voted out first? Clearly, Ciera or Laura. There are good reasons for voting out either of them. Laura would be more likely to win the final immunity challenge if given the chance, but Ciera is the bigger jury threat. I think, in the end, Ciera will be the one to go, because even if Laura could win the final challenge, she's not someone who you'd have to worry about taking all of the jury votes, unlike Ciera. Also, there's a pretty good chance that Laura wins the final 5 immunity challenge, which would seal the deal and send Ciera to Ponderosa.

After that, Laura's only chance of making final 3 will be to win immunity. If she does, who goes home? More and more secret scenes are suggesting that the closest alliance is Tyson and Monica, so they could turn on Gervase. But with Gervase being a complete non-threat, it's possible that Tyson would want to join him and vote out Monica, who has at least a small chance of winning should she make final three. The other option would be for Gervase and Monica to turn on Tyson, which would be their smartest move. Then Gervase could take sole credit for all of the moves he and Tyson made together, and Monica's game wouldn't be overshadowed by Tyson's, and she'd probably win it all. I'm really not sure which way it could go... but I'm gonna say that Tyson and Monica would vote out Gervase, because I can't see Gervase turning on Tyson, who has been his closest ally since the beginning, and I think Tyson would rather have Gervase on the jury than Monica, who would almost definitely be bitter. I'm not confident in this prediction, because I can truly see any of the three scenarios playing out. And we may never find out if I'm right if one of them is the one to win final immunity.

Finally, who will win? My bet is on Tyson. I can only see three scenarios where Tyson doesn't win. First, the aforementioned possibility of Gervase and Monica voting him out at final four. Second, if Ciera somehow wins one or both of the immunities and gets into the final 3 (and even if she did, I'm still not sure she would beat Tyson, but she'd surely give him a run for his money). And third, if Hayden is the one to come back from Redemption Island and wins both immunities, securing his spot in the final 3. This would be very unlikely given the tough physical competition he'd have, and once again I'm still not sure that he would beat Tyson, but he would have a very good chance.

This finale could be quite predictable, but there's definitely some potential for surprises. It's been an amazing season and I can't wait to see how it ends!