I have only one complaint, and it has nothing to do with the game. The season has had many unpredictable moments, which would be great if they weren't SO PREDICTABLE! CBS has practically been giving away every big move that happens with their previews. Aras' blindside and Ciera voting out her mom were both moments that should have been mind-blowingly amazing. But they weren't, because by the time they happened, they'd been teased so often that anyone watching would probably have been more surprised if they didn't happen. And it only gets worse this week.
At least the previews before have never told us exactly what happens at Tribal Council. They've only hinted at how the vote would turn out. But this week's commercial is full of spoilers. Not only does it apparently show who the 3rd jury member is (Thankfully, I didn't notice this when I watched), it also tells us what happens at Tribal, short of who actually gets the votes and goes home.
Unfortunately, I can't unsee what I have seen. So I might as well make predictions based on it. If you haven't seen the commercial and don't want to be spoiled at all, I suggest you stop reading now.
The worst thing about this spoilery commercial is that the moment it teases is so insane, so unexpected, that I probably would have been jumping out of my seat and running around my room in disbelief as it happened if I didn't know it was coming. That experience of pure excitement has been robbed from me now, but in return I have been provided with some interesting content to make predictions off of. There is going to be a 3-3 tie, which most likely means Hayden will find somebody to flip and vote with himself and Katie. The previews would have us believe that that person is Gervase, but even though the previews this season have often been right, my first instinct is still not to believe them.
But then, who else could it be? Ciera made it clear last week that she wouldn't be turning on Tyson, and I find it hard to believe that Hayden would try to form a new alliance with Tyson, who is the person he should have the easiest time turning the others against. That leaves only Monica. And while Hayden may be able to convince her that Tyson would take Gervase and Ciera to the final three instead of her, Monica has stayed loyal to Tyson so far despite that fact that she's always been perceived as on the bottom of his alliance. She also has a promise from Tyson to take her to the final 3, and Tyson has given her no reason to doubt him, besides hiding the fact that he had the hidden idol from her, the reasons for which I think she'll understand. Not to mention the fact that he his it from everyone, not just Monica, and so she can't take it personally. Monica is a patient player, and I don't think Monica would risk going to rocks to vote for Tyson now.
Which brings us back to Gervase. And the fact that, once again, the previews will probably be right. Gervase is someone who will be wanting to show people that he can make his own moves in the game. He's smart enough to know that he currently appears to be completely in Tyson's control. He'll see that the jury so far haven't given any indications of being bitter towards Tyson. He'll think that he will have no chance of winning against Tyson, and so he will take this opportunity to try to get him out.
If this is the case, then Hayden, Katie, and Gervase would go to Tribal knowing that it would be a tie vote. Since those who receive votes in a tie become safe from the rocks, they'll want to vote for someone other than Tyson. The tie vote, then, will probably be between Hayden and either Ciera or Monica. Somebody will have won immunity, meaning only 3 will draw rocks. I'm going to go ahead and say Gervase wins immunity, as this would explain why he would risk the rock tie-breaker. He'd be safe no matter what.
This means Katie, Tyson, and either Monica or Ciera will be drawing rocks. It's impossible to predict who will be going home, so I won't even try.
And this is precisely why the rock tie-breaker shouldn't exist. It adds an element of absolute randomness to the game. Someone will be eliminated because they drew a white rock from a bag instead of a black one. Doesn't matter how great they've played before that moment. The white rock is the deadliest force in the game.
No matter how exciting the moment will be, it's not worth it if it's only happening on average once every 13 seasons. It discourages people from making moves when there are an even number of players left, because, usually, no one wants to risk leaving the game at the hands of a rock.
Back in season 2, the tiebreaker was based on past votes. Between those who were part of the tie vote, whoever had received the most votes at previous tribal councils would be eliminated from the game. In my opinion, this is a much better system. It adds a new layer of strategy to the game. Players would have to try to find out who has had votes against them before, and also try to hide votes against themselves. They'd have to work extra hard to make sure they didn't receive ANY votes at tribal, and players who know they are getting voted out would be able to leave their mark on the game by putting their vote on someone they don't want to make it to the end. Best of all, players would not be afraid of flipping at an even number if they know that they'll be safe in the resulting tie vote because their target has had numerous votes against him/her before.
What do you think? Will Gervase be the one to flip? Should ties continue to be decided by rocks? Do I have any idea what I'm talking about? Leave a comment and let me know!
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