Dumping the Rice Dumper

I'm Brooks MacLachlan, someone who for some reason thinks his obsession with Survivor in recent years makes him qualified enough to judge those who are actually playing the game. I analyze everything I can: the episodes, secret scenes, interviews with eliminated players, social media activity of the players, and more to come up with the motivations behind what each player has done. I decide what should have happened, because I obviously know best, and I predict what should and what will happen in each player’s future in the game. And I’ll probably get it right every time because that’s just how I am.

Phew. That was close.

I can't remember a time I've wanted someone out more than J'Tia, or someone in more than Spencer in last night's episode. And I really thought Spencer would be voted out. Luckily, I was wrong, and with the tribe swap next week, Spencer and Kass and Tasha will all have new life in the game. Hopefully the Brain genocide has come to an end, at least for now.

But of course I'm going to be a little biased in my analysis of the latest Tribal Council, considering how badly I wanted J'Tia out. But really, all J'Tia offered Kass and Tasha was loyalty. It was the right move to vote her out because she'd be unpredictable, a loose cannon that could potentially ruin they're games with her impulsive actions. She simply wouldn't be a reliable ally. On the other hand, Spencer acts rationally. He too claims that he'll be loyal, but even if that's not true, Spencer would be the bigger target for the other tribes come tribe swap or merge time. So Kass and Tasha would be able to flip against Spencer even more easily than he could flip against them. But the biggest reason for keeping Spencer/ousting J'Tia is challenges. The Brains tribe can't be sure that there will be a tribe swap before the merge. There have been only two seasons before with three tribes, and while both of those had tribe shake-ups of some sort after 4 people had been voted out, that's not a very large sample size, and in Survivor, you never know what can happen. If they were to vote out Spencer on the assumption that there would be a tribe swap, and then there wasn't a tribe swap, they all could have been voted out pre-merge. That's much too big a risk to take.

Spencer didn't say a whole lot to convince them to keep him, but clearly it was enough. He got across the points he needed to make: he'd be loyal, he'd help them win challenges, and J'Tia was too unpredictable to rely on. He didn't overcomplicate things, and by keeping his argument simple he was better able to convince the others that he would be reliable in the future. I definitely think Kass and Tasha deserve credit for making the right decision, but Spencer deserves just as much credit for arguing his case.

Shifting gears to the Brawn tribe, I'm really disappointed that Sarah is truly buying Tony's lies hook, line, and sinker, to the point where she actually tried to throw a challenge to get Cliff out. I'm still hoping that she'll catch on soon, but at this point Tony deserves lots of credit for pulling the wool over her eyes. Plus, he seemed to be more laid back this episode: He's not overplaying as much as I expected him to, and has found himself in a great position in his tribe.

It's clear that Sarah's not going to be comparing notes with Cliff and Lindsey at this point about whether or not they actually wanted her out, so her one hope for finding out the truth is Woo. Woo now knows that Sarah is targeting Cliff, and if Woo brings that information back to Cliff, maybe Cliff will approach Sarah and ask her why. That seems like the only scenario at this point that would result in Tony's lie being unravelled, but considering Woo seemed on board to vote out Cliff, even that seems unlikely. It looks like Tony will really pull this one off.

On the Beauty tribe, I really like that Morgan is actually playing the game. By calling out Jeremiah in front of the others, and saying he was the one who came to her and Brice wanting to get LJ out, she's planting seeds of distrust for Jeremiah in her tribemates. While I'm not sure that that would be enough to save her at this point, it's great to see that she's not just going to sit down and die. Knowing that she is at least a little game savvy bodes well for her going into the tribe swap.

We know that next week the tribes will be shaken up. It seems safe to say that three tribes will become two, and Jeff Probst confirmed in this weeks Entertainment Weekly interview that the tribe swap will be done randomly, which means the possibilities are endless.

Since the Brawn tribe has six members, it is most likely that each of the new tribes will have 3 former Brawn members. If this ends up happening, could we see the 4 non-Brawn members on each tribe teaming up to take out the Brawn? Especially with the fractures in the Brawn tribe, it seems likely that the next person voted out will be someone from the Brawn tribe. Even if they aren't split with three brawn on each tribe, and one tribe has a Brawn majority, if Sarah is on the same tribe as Cliff and/or Lindsey, she'll probably target them.

The Beauty Tribe has fractures too, with Morgan as the odd one out, so its possible, given the right tribe configuration, that a Beauty is voted out next. The Brains, for once, appear to be safe. They probably won't target each other, and their weakness and small number after the first part of the game will make them appear harmless to the others. The problem is that Malcolm and Denise of Survivor Philippines are still fresh on these players minds, so they might be wary of letting the remnants of the Brains tribe stick around.

In the end though, with all of the conflicts going on within the Brawn and Beauty tribes, I think the remaining Brain members will be able to slide through to the merge relatively easily. Live on, Luzon!